- Lead
- 182,124
- Total
- 316,541
- vs nation
- D+59.0
Missouri 1st Congressional District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 209,944
- Total
- 356,733
- vs nation
- D+54.4
- Lead
- 191,516
- Total
- 356,250
- vs nation
- D+51.7
- Lead
- 204,208
- Total
- 370,090
- vs nation
- D+51.3
- Lead
- 237,480
- Total
- 403,889
- vs nation
- D+51.5
- Lead
- 190,543
- Total
- 373,286
- vs nation
- D+53.5
- Lead
- 154,083
- Total
- 327,457
- vs nation
- D+46.5
- Lead
- 144,537
- Total
- 314,740
- vs nation
- D+37.4
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+57.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 768,7982024 5-year
- Population density
- 3,075 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 250 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $63,6442024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 41.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 45.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+58.9 in 2020MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+18.1 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Congressional District 5, GA · twin score 96.9
presidential history
Party record book
Missouri 1st Congressional District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
79.0%
318,887 votes · D+58.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 78.6%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
54.4%
169,640 votes · R+18.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1896 · 53.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
327,219votes
58.5% of the vote · D+41.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 318,887 votes
Republican
Wendell Willkie1940
185,250votes
37.4% of the vote · D+15.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 174,941 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+59.0pts D vs U.S.
Place D+57.5 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +54.4 pts
Republican
William H. Taft1912
+10.2pts R vs U.S.
Place D+9.4 · U.S. D+19.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Charles E. Hughes, 1916 · +7.9 pts
Current officeholders
Federal officeholders only. State and local officeholders are planned for the next data pass.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each result reflects the U.S. House district as it was drawn for that election; redistricting has redrawn these lines over time, so they can differ from the current 120th-Congress district shown on the map above.
Missouri's 1st anchors the St. Louis urban core and returns Democratic presidential margins above 60 points, making it among the most lopsided congressional districts in the nation by that measure.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 58.9 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 18.1 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 57.5 points.
A population of 768,798, a 41% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $63,644 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Congressional District 5 and Congressional District 12.
The congressional districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Missouri 1st Congressional District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/2901/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.