- Lead
- 17,670
- Total
- 102,606
- vs nation
- R+15.7
Tennessee 31st State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 17,192
- Total
- 111,552
- vs nation
- R+19.9
- Lead
- 24,932
- Total
- 94,817
- vs nation
- R+28.4
- Lead
- 30,891
- Total
- 104,783
- vs nation
- R+33.3
- Lead
- 32,179
- Total
- 113,331
- vs nation
- R+35.7
- Lead
- 44,550
- Total
- 112,914
- vs nation
- R+37.0
- Lead
- 40,458
- Total
- 101,592
- vs nation
- R+40.3
- Lead
- 39,476
- Total
- 99,276
- vs nation
- R+48.3
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+17.2MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 203,1722024 5-year
- Population density
- 1,209 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 168 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $122,1752024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 68.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 16.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+77.2 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+71.3 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 16, AL · twin score 95.4
presidential history
Party record book
Tennessee 31st State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
88.4%
9,589 votes · D+77.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1940 · 70.0%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
84.7%
80,203 votes · R+71.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · James G. Blaine, 1884 · 81.4%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
46,318votes
41.5% of the vote · R+15.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 41,534 votes
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
83,928votes
75.9% of the vote · R+52.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 80,203 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
+52.9pts D vs U.S.
Place D+77.2 · U.S. D+24.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1940 · +30.4 pts
Republican
Barry Goldwater1964
+70.6pts R vs U.S.
Place R+48.0 · U.S. D+22.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1960 · +51.2 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 61.8%41,796 | 38.2%25,841 | 67,637 |
| 2020 | D | 63.2%51,434 | 36.8%29,888 | 81,322 |
Tennessee 31st State Senate District sits in the Border South and Appalachia. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 77.2 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 71.3 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 17.2 points.
A population of 203,172, a 69% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $122,175 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 16 and State Senate District 8.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Tennessee 31st State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/47031/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.