- Lead
- 40,223
- Total
- 94,387
- vs nation
- D+44.1
New Jersey 15th State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 48,669
- Total
- 102,762
- vs nation
- D+42.9
- Lead
- 42,185
- Total
- 93,264
- vs nation
- D+43.1
- Lead
- 41,148
- Total
- 90,815
- vs nation
- D+41.5
- Lead
- 42,657
- Total
- 93,892
- vs nation
- D+38.2
- Lead
- 30,037
- Total
- 85,954
- vs nation
- D+37.4
- Lead
- 29,195
- Total
- 77,608
- vs nation
- D+37.1
- Lead
- 28,565
- Total
- 74,880
- vs nation
- D+29.6
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+42.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 234,2292024 5-year
- Population density
- 921 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 254 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $95,2962024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 38.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 23.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 22.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+55.9 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+14.4 in 1924MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 26, NY · twin score 92.5
presidential history
Party record book
New Jersey 15th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
77.9%
52,700 votes · D+55.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 72.9%
Republican
William McKinley1896
54.7%
5,898 votes · R+13.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 53.5%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
74,869votes
72.9% of the vote · D+47.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 67,700 votes
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
31,652votes
43.9% of the vote · D+11.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George H. W. Bush, 1988 · 29,608 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+44.1pts D vs U.S.
Place D+42.6 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · +43.1 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+7.7pts R vs U.S.
Place R+13.8 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Herbert Hoover, 1932 · +3.8 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 69.0%44,062 | 31.0%19,797 | 63,859 |
| 2020 | D | 62.1%59,845 | 37.9%36,570 | 96,415 |
New Jersey 15th State Senate District sits in the Mid-Atlantic. In 2024 it voted Democratic.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 55.9 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 14.4 points in 1924. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 4.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 42.6 points.
A population of 234,229, a 39% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $95,296 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 26 and State Senate District 20.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
New Jersey 15th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/34015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.