- Lead
- 16,514
- Total
- 50,411
- vs nation
- D+34.2
Minnesota 40th State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 16,439
- Total
- 52,300
- vs nation
- D+27.0
- Lead
- 10,099
- Total
- 48,604
- vs nation
- D+18.7
- Lead
- 7,407
- Total
- 50,022
- vs nation
- D+11.0
- Lead
- 6,577
- Total
- 49,871
- vs nation
- D+5.9
- Lead
- 2,965
- Total
- 49,703
- vs nation
- D+8.4
- Lead
- 164
- Total
- 45,283
- vs nation
- R+0.2
- Lead
- 4,485
- Total
- 41,557
- vs nation
- D+2.3
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+32.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 85,0432024 5-year
- Population density
- 2,330 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 36.5 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $99,9432024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 74.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 6.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+32.8 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+61.0 in 1904MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 50, MN · twin score 95.7
presidential history
Party record book
Minnesota 40th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
65.0%
32,765 votes · D+32.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 64.5%
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
77.1%
4,325 votes · R+61.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 67.3%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
33,718votes
64.5% of the vote · D+31.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 32,765 votes
Republican
George W. Bush2004
23,032votes
46.3% of the vote · D+6.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 22,723 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+34.2pts D vs U.S.
Place D+32.8 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +27.0 pts
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
+41.4pts R vs U.S.
Place R+61.0 · U.S. R+19.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1896 · +31.3 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 71.2%29,375 | 28.8%11,867 | 41,242 |
Anchored in the inner Twin Cities metro, this district delivered a 32.8-point Democratic presidential margin in 2024, reflecting a dense, highly educated urban electorate that has tracked consistently left of the statewide average.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 32.8 points in 2024 and a Republican high of 61.0 points in 1904. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.3 points toward the Democratic candidate; the 2024 margin was 32.8 points.
A population of 85,043, a 74% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $99,943 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 50 and State Senate District 52.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Minnesota 40th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/27040/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.