- Lead
- 13,859
- Total
- 54,485
- vs nation
- R+24.0
Minnesota 31st State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 12,963
- Total
- 53,378
- vs nation
- R+28.7
- Lead
- 13,445
- Total
- 46,479
- vs nation
- R+31.0
- Lead
- 10,749
- Total
- 46,144
- vs nation
- R+27.1
- Lead
- 10,471
- Total
- 45,115
- vs nation
- R+30.5
- Lead
- 11,946
- Total
- 43,379
- vs nation
- R+25.1
- Lead
- 7,465
- Total
- 35,829
- vs nation
- R+21.4
- Lead
- 47
- Total
- 29,128
- vs nation
- R+8.7
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+25.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 85,8632024 5-year
- Population density
- 413 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 208 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $118,4942024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 86.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+22.0 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+79.6 in 1904MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 30, MN · twin score 95.8
presidential history
Party record book
Minnesota 31st State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
60.9%
6,210 votes · D+22.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Harry S. Truman, 1948 · 54.4%
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
87.7%
554 votes · R+79.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · James G. Blaine, 1884 · 79.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
19,755votes
36.3% of the vote · R+25.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 19,569 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
33,614votes
61.7% of the vote · R+25.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 32,532 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Hubert Humphrey1968
+9.6pts D vs U.S.
Place D+8.9 · U.S. R+0.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Harry S. Truman, 1948 · +7.7 pts
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
+59.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+79.6 · U.S. R+19.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1900 · +53.6 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 45.0%21,096 | 55.0%25,788 | 46,884 |
| 2020 | R | 42.3%19,533 | 57.7%26,663 | 46,196 |
Minnesota 31st State Senate District sits in the Upper Midwest. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 22.0 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 79.6 points in 1904. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 25.4 points.
A population of 85,863, a 86% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $118,494 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 30 and State Senate District 29.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Minnesota 31st State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/27031/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.