- Lead
- 67,704
- Total
- 156,470
- vs nation
- D+44.7
Michigan 15th State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 71,099
- Total
- 152,601
- vs nation
- D+42.1
- Lead
- 55,458
- Total
- 134,168
- vs nation
- D+39.2
- Lead
- 48,813
- Total
- 127,118
- vs nation
- D+34.5
- Lead
- 57,542
- Total
- 132,878
- vs nation
- D+36.0
- Lead
- 37,582
- Total
- 122,398
- vs nation
- D+33.2
- Lead
- 27,643
- Total
- 102,408
- vs nation
- D+26.5
- Lead
- 26,625
- Total
- 88,256
- vs nation
- D+21.6
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+43.3MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 270,4922024 5-year
- Population density
- 675 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 401 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $80,0622024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 65.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 14.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 6.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+46.6 in 2020MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+51.4 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 18, CO · twin score 92.9
presidential history
Party record book
Michigan 15th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
72.6%
110,725 votes · D+46.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 70.8%
Republican
Herbert Hoover1928
75.4%
14,458 votes · R+51.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 70.3%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
110,725votes
72.6% of the vote · D+46.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 110,018 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
42,314votes
27.0% of the vote · D+43.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 41,661 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+44.7pts D vs U.S.
Place D+43.3 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +42.1 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+38.3pts R vs U.S.
Place R+44.4 · U.S. R+6.1 · a third-party candidate carried the Place · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Wendell Willkie, 1940 · +34.6 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 71.3%109,494 | 28.7%44,147 | 153,641 |
| 2020 | D | 70.8%108,322 | 29.2%44,722 | 153,044 |
Michigan 15th State Senate District sits in the Great Lakes. In 2024 it voted Democratic.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 46.6 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 51.4 points in 1928. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 43.3 points.
A population of 270,492, a 66% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $80,062 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 18 and State Senate District 26.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Michigan 15th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/26015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.