- Lead
- 37,614
- Total
- 88,114
- vs nation
- D+44.2
Massachusetts Third Middlesex District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 43,480
- Total
- 93,851
- vs nation
- D+41.9
- Lead
- 32,183
- Total
- 86,694
- vs nation
- D+35.0
- Lead
- 21,570
- Total
- 79,613
- vs nation
- D+23.2
- Lead
- 23,447
- Total
- 77,644
- vs nation
- D+22.9
- Lead
- 21,777
- Total
- 73,664
- vs nation
- D+32.0
- Lead
- 21,985
- Total
- 70,450
- vs nation
- D+30.7
- Lead
- 24,452
- Total
- 67,470
- vs nation
- D+27.7
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+42.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 170,2582024 5-year
- Population density
- 1,351 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 126 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $147,4502024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 69.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 4.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 8.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+52.9 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+51.7 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Middlesex and Norfolk District, MA · twin score 99.4
presidential history
Party record book
Massachusetts Third Middlesex District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
76.3%
47,027 votes · D+52.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 71.9%
Republican
William McKinley1896
71.9%
6,046 votes · R+51.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 69.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
67,453votes
71.9% of the vote · D+46.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 61,496 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
36,591votes
61.0% of the vote · R+22.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 34,089 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+44.2pts D vs U.S.
Place D+42.7 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +41.9 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+45.6pts R vs U.S.
Place R+51.7 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Alf Landon, 1936 · +26.7 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 100.0%64,518 | 0.0%0 | 64,518 |
| 2020 | D | 80.6%65,108 | 19.4%15,652 | 80,760 |
The Third Middlesex District delivered a 42.7-point Democratic presidential margin in 2024, reflecting the dense concentration of university communities and inner-ring Boston suburbs that define its electorate.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 52.9 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 51.7 points in 1896. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 42.7 points.
A population of 170,258, a 69% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $147,450 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Middlesex and Norfolk District and Middlesex and Worcester District.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Massachusetts Third Middlesex District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/25D15/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.