- Lead
- 7,677
- Total
- 69,606
- vs nation
- D+12.5
Massachusetts First Middlesex District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 14,845
- Total
- 73,419
- vs nation
- D+15.8
- Lead
- 11,142
- Total
- 69,434
- vs nation
- D+14.0
- Lead
- 1,816
- Total
- 66,307
- vs nation
- R+1.1
- Lead
- 3,994
- Total
- 63,732
- vs nation
- R+1.0
- Lead
- 3,329
- Total
- 60,807
- vs nation
- D+7.9
- Lead
- 5,253
- Total
- 57,263
- vs nation
- D+8.7
- Lead
- 8,345
- Total
- 53,780
- vs nation
- D+7.0
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+11.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 175,5132024 5-year
- Population density
- 1,948 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 90.1 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $90,8122024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 54.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 7.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 16.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+32.5 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+67.8 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Norfolk and Plymouth District, MA · twin score 88.7
presidential history
Party record book
Massachusetts First Middlesex District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
66.1%
31,409 votes · D+32.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 59.1%
Republican
William McKinley1896
80.1%
6,830 votes · R+67.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 78.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
43,365votes
59.1% of the vote · D+20.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 37,664 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
40,675votes
72.2% of the vote · R+44.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 37,853 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
+15.8pts D vs U.S.
Place D+20.2 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · +14.0 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+61.7pts R vs U.S.
Place R+67.8 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Alf Landon, 1936 · +49.3 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 100.0%66,509 | 0.0%0 | 66,509 |
| 2020 | D | 80.6%67,117 | 19.4%16,135 | 83,252 |
Stretching through north-central Massachusetts, the First Middlesex District blends commuter suburbs with small mill towns, producing presidential margins that lean Democratic by roughly 11 points — competitive enough that local races can diverge sharply from the top of the ticket.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 32.5 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 67.8 points in 1896. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 9.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 11.0 points.
A population of 175,513, a 54% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $90,812 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Norfolk and Plymouth District and Fifth Middlesex District.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Massachusetts First Middlesex District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/25D11/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.