- Lead
- 11,584
- Total
- 39,051
- vs nation
- R+28.2
Arkansas 16th State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 12,409
- Total
- 39,119
- vs nation
- R+36.2
- Lead
- 12,900
- Total
- 34,534
- vs nation
- R+39.4
- Lead
- 11,673
- Total
- 32,552
- vs nation
- R+39.7
- Lead
- 10,634
- Total
- 31,123
- vs nation
- R+41.4
- Lead
- 5,900
- Total
- 27,877
- vs nation
- R+18.7
- Lead
- 3,080
- Total
- 23,154
- vs nation
- R+13.8
- Lead
- 2,402
- Total
- 21,113
- vs nation
- D+2.9
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+29.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 88,0362024 5-year
- Population density
- 564 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 156 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $79,0702024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 74.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 11.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 7.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+83.3 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+37.4 in 2016MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 24, OK · twin score 94.3
presidential history
Party record book
Arkansas 16th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
90.9%
1,593 votes · D+83.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1940 · 85.8%
Republican
Donald Trump2016
67.0%
23,155 votes · R+37.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · 66.4%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
13,276votes
34.0% of the vote · R+29.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 12,883 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2020
25,292votes
64.7% of the vote · R+31.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 24,860 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+75.3pts D vs U.S.
Place D+50.1 · U.S. R+25.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1896 · +72.3 pts
Republican
John McCain2008
+41.4pts R vs U.S.
Place R+34.2 · U.S. D+7.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · +39.7 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 31.4%12,084 | 68.6%26,365 | 38,449 |
| 2020 | R | 31.0%12,111 | 69.0%27,006 | 39,117 |
With a 2024 presidential margin of R+29.7 across a population of roughly 88,000, this district reflects the strong Republican lean that has defined much of rural Arkansas over the past two decades.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 83.3 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 37.4 points in 2016. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 2.1 points toward the Democratic candidate; the 2024 margin was 29.7 points.
A population of 88,036, a 74% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $79,070 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 24 and State Senate District 18.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Arkansas 16th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/05016/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.