- Lead
- 15,445
- Total
- 25,113
- vs nation
- D+63.0
Arkansas 15th State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 18,425
- Total
- 29,433
- vs nation
- D+58.1
- Lead
- 16,923
- Total
- 27,477
- vs nation
- D+59.5
- Lead
- 15,748
- Total
- 27,315
- vs nation
- D+53.8
- Lead
- 16,036
- Total
- 27,623
- vs nation
- D+50.8
- Lead
- 15,227
- Total
- 26,337
- vs nation
- D+60.3
- Lead
- 12,162
- Total
- 21,770
- vs nation
- D+55.3
- Lead
- 14,730
- Total
- 23,111
- vs nation
- D+55.2
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+61.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 88,2332024 5-year
- Population density
- 1,556 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 56.7 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $48,1982024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 20.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 56.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 17.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+95.0 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 12, AR · twin score 98.0
presidential history
Party record book
Arkansas 15th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
97.5%
2,817 votes · D+95.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 95.9%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
36.2%
4,722 votes · D+27.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 31.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
23,537votes
80.0% of the vote · D+62.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · 21,900 votes
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
6,278votes
31.9% of the vote · D+35.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George H. W. Bush, 1988 · 5,708 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
James M. Cox1920
+97.9pts D vs U.S.
Place D+71.7 · U.S. R+26.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John W. Davis, 1924 · +94.1 pts
Republican
Barry Goldwater1964
−28.7pts R vs U.S.
Place D+51.3 · U.S. D+22.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1968 · −37.7 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Arkansas 15th State Senate District sits in the Mid-South. In 2024 it voted Democratic.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 95.0 points in 1936. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 61.5 points.
A population of 88,233, a 21% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $48,198 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 12 and State Senate District 28.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Arkansas 15th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/05015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.