- Lead
- 4,497
- Total
- 48,620
- vs nation
- R+7.8
Virginia 40th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 4,648
- Total
- 48,753
- vs nation
- R+14.0
- Lead
- 7,402
- Total
- 44,240
- vs nation
- R+18.8
- Lead
- 5,916
- Total
- 44,283
- vs nation
- R+17.2
- Lead
- 4,181
- Total
- 44,473
- vs nation
- R+16.7
- Lead
- 8,391
- Total
- 40,604
- vs nation
- R+18.2
- Lead
- 4,859
- Total
- 37,561
- vs nation
- R+13.5
- Lead
- 1,416
- Total
- 35,195
- vs nation
- R+12.5
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+9.2MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 86,7232024 5-year
- Population density
- 1,606 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 54 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $77,7742024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 79.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 7.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+56.5 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+48.8 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 74, NC · twin score 92.0
presidential history
Party record book
Virginia 40th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
44.8%
21,770 votes · R+9.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 44.6%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
59.9%
24,302 votes · R+20.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · 55.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
21,770votes
44.8% of the vote · R+9.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 21,566 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
26,267votes
54.0% of the vote · R+9.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 26,214 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
−7.8pts D vs U.S.
Place R+9.2 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · −14.0 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2016
+18.8pts R vs U.S.
Place R+16.7 · U.S. D+2.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · +18.2 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Virginia 40th State House District sits in the Mid-Atlantic and Appalachia. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 56.5 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 48.8 points in 1972. The 2024 margin was 9.2 points.
A population of 86,723, a 80% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $77,774 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 74 and State House District 6.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Virginia 40th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/51040/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.