- Lead
- 22,961
- Total
- 48,456
- vs nation
- R+45.9
Virginia 33rd State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 21,124
- Total
- 46,264
- vs nation
- R+50.1
- Lead
- 18,765
- Total
- 39,997
- vs nation
- R+49.0
- Lead
- 12,593
- Total
- 37,649
- vs nation
- R+37.3
- Lead
- 10,256
- Total
- 37,289
- vs nation
- R+34.8
- Lead
- 13,290
- Total
- 33,639
- vs nation
- R+37.1
- Lead
- 10,557
- Total
- 28,026
- vs nation
- R+38.2
- Lead
- 6,389
- Total
- 25,745
- vs nation
- R+33.3
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+47.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 86,7102024 5-year
- Population density
- 77 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 1,130 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $64,4542024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 87.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 6.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+79.1 in 1876MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+59.7 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 50, IN · twin score 97.0
presidential history
Party record book
Virginia 33rd State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
35.6%
13,263 votes · R+27.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · 32.4%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
73.2%
35,473 votes · R+47.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 72.0%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
13,263votes
35.6% of the vote · R+27.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 12,512 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
35,473votes
73.2% of the vote · R+47.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 33,322 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
−34.8pts D vs U.S.
Place R+27.5 · U.S. D+7.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John Kerry, 2004 · −37.1 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+50.1pts R vs U.S.
Place R+45.7 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · +49.0 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
The district recorded a Republican presidential margin of R+47.4 in 2024, compared with R+27.5 in 2008. The district had about 105,000 residents, 86.7% White alone in the 2024 ACS 5-year.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 79.1 points in 1876 and a Republican high of 59.7 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 47.4 points.
A population of 86,710, a 88% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $64,454 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 50 and State House District 38.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Virginia 33rd State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/51033/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.