- Lead
- 26,466
- Total
- 98,016
- vs nation
- R+25.5
Texas 15th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 24,335
- Total
- 96,767
- vs nation
- R+29.6
- Lead
- 27,329
- Total
- 75,746
- vs nation
- R+38.2
- Lead
- 34,240
- Total
- 65,307
- vs nation
- R+56.3
- Lead
- 26,125
- Total
- 60,091
- vs nation
- R+50.7
- Lead
- 29,783
- Total
- 53,564
- vs nation
- R+53.1
- Lead
- 22,452
- Total
- 42,384
- vs nation
- R+53.5
- Lead
- 11,725
- Total
- 31,097
- vs nation
- R+46.2
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+27.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 200,1852024 5-year
- Population density
- 1,876 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 107 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $120,0012024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 60.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 7.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 20.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+85.4 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+55.6 in 2004MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 130, TX · twin score 96.5
presidential history
Party record book
Texas 15th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 37 with a vote-share denominator · 33 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
92.7%
900 votes · D+85.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 91.6%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
77.6%
41,543 votes · R+55.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 76.5%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
35,442votes
36.6% of the vote · R+25.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 35,119 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
61,585votes
62.8% of the vote · R+27.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 59,777 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+102.3pts D vs U.S.
Place D+77.1 · U.S. R+25.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · James M. Cox, 1920 · +69.7 pts
Republican
Mitt Romney2012
+56.3pts R vs U.S.
Place R+52.4 · U.S. D+3.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2000 · +53.5 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
The district recorded a Republican presidential margin of R+27.0 in 2024, compared with R+43.5 in 2008. The district had about 68,700 residents, 66.8% White alone in the 2024 ACS 5-year.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 85.4 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 55.6 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 27.0 points.
A population of 200,185, a 61% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $120,001 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 130 and State House District 3.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Texas 15th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/48015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.