HarrisDemocratic27.5%2,217TrumpRepublican70.3%5,654OtherAll other candidates2.2%177
R+42.7- Lead
- 3,437
- Total
- 8,048
- vs nation
- R+41.2
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Akashicstate house district
North Dakota 15th State House District
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the district’s overall result across 1892–2024, on its current boundaries.
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
BidenDemocratic28.6%2,371TrumpRepublican68.7%5,704OtherAll other candidates2.8%229
R+40.1- Lead
- 3,333
- Total
- 8,304
- vs nation
- R+44.6
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic27.2%2,226TrumpRepublican62.5%5,123OtherAll other candidates10.3%848
R+35.3- Lead
- 2,897
- Total
- 8,197
- vs nation
- R+37.4
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic42.5%3,399RomneyRepublican54.1%4,327OtherAll other candidates3.4%268
R+11.6- Lead
- 928
- Total
- 7,994
- vs nation
- R+15.5
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic47.9%3,747McCainRepublican49.5%3,871OtherAll other candidates2.5%198
R+1.6- Lead
- 124
- Total
- 7,816
- vs nation
- R+8.9
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
KerryDemocratic38.8%3,266BushRepublican59.6%5,019OtherAll other candidates1.6%137
R+20.8- Lead
- 1,753
- Total
- 8,422
- vs nation
- R+18.4
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
GoreDemocratic31.8%2,619BushRepublican60.8%5,017OtherAll other candidates7.4%612
R+29.1- Lead
- 2,398
- Total
- 8,248
- vs nation
- R+29.6
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic43.2%3,594DoleRepublican43.9%3,651OtherAll other candidates12.9%1,071
R+0.7- Lead
- 57
- Total
- 8,316
- vs nation
- R+9.2
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+42.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 16,9672024 5-year
- Population density
- 5.1 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 3,320 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $62,1212024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 84.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+42.0 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+60.4 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 29, ND · twin score 93.3
presidential history
Party record book
North Dakota 15th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
70.4%
9,823 votes · D+42.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 63.3%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
79.2%
9,597 votes · R+60.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 70.5%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
9,823votes
70.4% of the vote · D+42.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 9,412 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1952
9,683votes
70.5% of the vote · R+41.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 9,597 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
+24.2pts D vs U.S.
Place D+42.0 · U.S. D+17.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1896 · +13.0 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+44.6pts R vs U.S.
Place R+40.1 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Benjamin Harrison, 1892 · +44.3 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RDonna HendersonState House · 15
RKathy FrelichState House · 15
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
U.S. House elections · 3 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
With a 2024 presidential margin of R+42.8 in a state that already leans heavily Republican, District 15 ranks among the least competitive seats in the legislature, leaving candidate recruitment and primaries as the primary electoral dynamics.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 42.0 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 60.4 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 2.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 42.7 points.
A population of 16,967, a 85% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $62,121 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 29 and State House District 19A.
Political twins — state-house districts
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
State House District 29
North Dakota
93.3twin score
12-yr trend2020–2024 trajectoryelasticity≠ % White
State House District 19A
Minnesota
92.3twin score
12-yr trendelasticityNorwegian ancestry≠ Scottish ancestry
State House District 4
South Dakota
92.0twin score
12-yr trend2016–2024 trajectory≠ % White
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
North Dakota 15th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/38015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
North Dakota at the ballot boxAll elections →
Places within North Dakota 15th State House District
counties it covers3
Frequently asked questions
How did North Dakota 15th State House District vote in 2024?
In 2024, North Dakota 15th State House District voted Republican by 42.7 points (R+42.7), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 8,048 votes cast, 2,217 went Democratic and 5,654 went Republican.
When did North Dakota 15th State House District last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which North Dakota 15th State House District voted Democratic was 1976.
How many people live in North Dakota 15th State House District?
North Dakota 15th State House District has a population of 16,967 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in North Dakota 15th State House District?
Median household income in North Dakota 15th State House District is $62,121 — below the national median of $80,734. The North Dakota state median is $76,657.
What is the political history of North Dakota 15th State House District?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in North Dakota 15th State House District from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 7 went Democratic and 26 went Republican.