- Lead
- 9,761
- Total
- 26,511
- vs nation
- D+38.3
New York 78th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 23,125
- Total
- 33,987
- vs nation
- D+63.6
- Lead
- 25,965
- Total
- 30,897
- vs nation
- D+81.9
- Lead
- 25,246
- Total
- 28,743
- vs nation
- D+84.0
- Lead
- 24,523
- Total
- 29,324
- vs nation
- D+76.4
- Lead
- 19,361
- Total
- 25,933
- vs nation
- D+77.1
- Lead
- 19,080
- Total
- 23,648
- vs nation
- D+80.2
- Lead
- 18,020
- Total
- 22,335
- vs nation
- D+72.2
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+36.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 134,8732024 5-year
- Population density
- 61,306 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 2.2 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $42,5722024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 7.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 18.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 69.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+87.8 in 2012MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+18.6 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Assembly District 86, NY · twin score 99.6
presidential history
Party record book
New York 78th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1916–2020 · 27 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
93.7%
26,930 votes · D+87.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 91.6%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
47.6%
5,970 votes · R+18.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 36.3%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
32,006votes
80.6% of the vote · D+61.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John F. Kennedy, 1960 · 30,961 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
14,487votes
34.6% of the vote · D+30.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 13,619 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
+84.0pts D vs U.S.
Place D+87.8 · U.S. D+3.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · +81.9 pts
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
−7.6pts R vs U.S.
Place R+18.6 · U.S. R+26.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Thomas E. Dewey, 1944 · −11.4 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Assembly District 78 covers a dense stretch of the South Bronx where the 2024 presidential margin exceeded 36 points, reflecting a heavily Latino working-class electorate that has voted reliably Democratic for decades.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 87.8 points in 2012 and a Republican high of 18.6 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 31.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 36.8 points.
A population of 134,873, a 7% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $42,572 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Assembly District 86 and Assembly District 84.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
New York 78th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/36078/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.