- Lead
- 14,392
- Total
- 31,541
- vs nation
- D+47.1
New York 51st State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 22,074
- Total
- 34,918
- vs nation
- D+58.8
- Lead
- 22,155
- Total
- 31,325
- vs nation
- D+68.6
- Lead
- 21,143
- Total
- 28,679
- vs nation
- D+69.9
- Lead
- 20,302
- Total
- 29,294
- vs nation
- D+62.0
- Lead
- 16,249
- Total
- 26,124
- vs nation
- D+64.7
- Lead
- 17,567
- Total
- 24,182
- vs nation
- D+72.1
- Lead
- 15,330
- Total
- 21,249
- vs nation
- D+63.6
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+45.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 131,9402024 5-year
- Population density
- 29,320 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 4.5 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $82,8542024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 23.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 6.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 44.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+73.7 in 2012MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+22.5 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Assembly District 53, NY · twin score 95.8
presidential history
Party record book
New York 51st State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2020 (partial returns from 1876) · 37 presidential cycles · 37 with a vote-share denominator · 33 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
86.2%
24,721 votes · D+73.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 84.2%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
53.8%
8,407 votes · R+22.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1896 · 47.3%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
28,327votes
81.1% of the vote · D+63.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 27,997 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
13,224votes
36.7% of the vote · D+26.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 12,827 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Al Gore2000
+72.1pts D vs U.S.
Place D+72.6 · U.S. D+0.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · +69.9 pts
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
−3.7pts R vs U.S.
Place R+22.5 · U.S. R+26.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1896 · −6.1 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | D | 85.5%18,577 | 14.5%3,151 | 21,728 |
New York 51st State House District sits in the Mid-Atlantic. In 2024 it voted Democratic.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 73.7 points in 2012 and a Republican high of 22.5 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 17.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 45.6 points.
A population of 131,940, a 23% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $82,854 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Assembly District 53 and Assembly District 54.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
New York 51st State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/36051/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.