- Lead
- 17,106
- Total
- 34,047
- vs nation
- R+48.8
New York 45th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 13,393
- Total
- 37,430
- vs nation
- R+40.2
- Lead
- 6,673
- Total
- 30,125
- vs nation
- R+24.2
- Lead
- 5,124
- Total
- 26,742
- vs nation
- R+23.0
- Lead
- 8,653
- Total
- 30,091
- vs nation
- R+36.0
- Lead
- 12,141
- Total
- 30,575
- vs nation
- R+37.3
- Lead
- 3,489
- Total
- 21,991
- vs nation
- R+16.4
- Lead
- 2,700
- Total
- 18,953
- vs nation
- R+22.8
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+50.2MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 132,6112024 5-year
- Population density
- 36,836 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 3.6 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $64,9202024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 63.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 10.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Republican margin
- R+85.1 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Assembly District 48, NY · twin score 75.6
presidential history
Party record book
New York 45th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2020 (partial returns from 1876) · 37 presidential cycles · 37 with a vote-share denominator · 33 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Bill Clinton1996
40.2%
7,624 votes · R+14.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Al Gore, 2000 · 40.0%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
90.2%
37,197 votes · R+85.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1896 · 89.5%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
12,082votes
29.3% of the vote · R+41.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 11,866 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
58,472votes
85.6% of the vote · R+71.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 56,729 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Al Gore2000
−16.4pts D vs U.S.
Place R+15.9 · U.S. D+0.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Bill Clinton, 1996 · −22.8 pts
Republican
Charles E. Hughes1916
+75.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+72.8 · U.S. D+3.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1896 · +74.6 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Anchored in Staten Island's mid-island neighborhoods, AD-45 backed the 2024 Republican presidential ticket by nearly 24 points — a margin that stands out sharply in a state where Democrats dominate the legislative map.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 85.1 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 14.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 50.2 points.
A population of 132,611, a 64% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $64,920 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Assembly District 48 and Assembly District 64.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
New York 45th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/36045/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.