- Lead
- 513
- Total
- 26,166
- vs nation
- R+0.5
New York 40th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 6,880
- Total
- 29,596
- vs nation
- D+18.8
- Lead
- 9,087
- Total
- 25,398
- vs nation
- D+33.7
- Lead
- 9,199
- Total
- 21,720
- vs nation
- D+38.5
- Lead
- 7,574
- Total
- 23,951
- vs nation
- D+24.4
- Lead
- 5,491
- Total
- 23,003
- vs nation
- D+26.3
- Lead
- 7,264
- Total
- 20,553
- vs nation
- D+34.8
- Lead
- 6,570
- Total
- 18,807
- vs nation
- D+26.4
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+2.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 129,2732024 5-year
- Population density
- 39,174 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 3.3 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $64,4792024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 12.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 15.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+42.4 in 2012MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+59.8 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Assembly District 25, NY · twin score 96.8
presidential history
Party record book
New York 40th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2020 (partial returns from 1876) · 37 presidential cycles · 37 with a vote-share denominator · 33 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
70.7%
15,364 votes · D+42.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · 66.4%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
78.1%
4,909 votes · R+59.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1896 · 70.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
18,110votes
61.2% of the vote · D+23.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 17,656 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
24,564votes
70.4% of the vote · R+40.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 23,476 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
+38.5pts D vs U.S.
Place D+42.4 · U.S. D+3.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Al Gore, 2000 · +34.8 pts
Republican
Thomas E. Dewey1944
+47.2pts R vs U.S.
Place R+39.7 · U.S. D+7.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Wendell Willkie, 1940 · +42.0 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Assembly District 40 sits in Staten Island's competitive middle ground, where a 2.0-point presidential margin signals an electorate that has shifted measurably rightward over the past decade while remaining genuinely contestable at the district level.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 42.4 points in 2012 and a Republican high of 59.8 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 25.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 2.0 points.
A population of 129,273, a 12% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $64,479 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Assembly District 25 and Assembly District 30.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
New York 40th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/36040/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.