- Lead
- 4,651
- Total
- 33,915
- vs nation
- D+15.2
New York 38th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 16,129
- Total
- 37,677
- vs nation
- D+38.4
- Lead
- 17,834
- Total
- 33,497
- vs nation
- D+51.2
- Lead
- 17,069
- Total
- 29,062
- vs nation
- D+54.9
- Lead
- 15,745
- Total
- 31,256
- vs nation
- D+43.1
- Lead
- 12,936
- Total
- 29,646
- vs nation
- D+46.1
- Lead
- 14,279
- Total
- 27,133
- vs nation
- D+52.1
- Lead
- 12,832
- Total
- 25,140
- vs nation
- D+42.5
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+13.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 132,5172024 5-year
- Population density
- 30,117 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 4.4 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $91,8332024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 21.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 5.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 50.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+58.7 in 2012MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+42.3 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Assembly District 34, NY · twin score 99.2
presidential history
Party record book
New York 38th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2020 (partial returns from 1876) · 37 presidential cycles · 37 with a vote-share denominator · 33 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
78.5%
22,828 votes · D+58.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · 75.0%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
67.4%
4,590 votes · R+42.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1956 · 60.0%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
26,729votes
70.9% of the vote · D+42.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 26,276 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
22,983votes
60.0% of the vote · R+20.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 21,952 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
+54.9pts D vs U.S.
Place D+58.7 · U.S. D+3.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Al Gore, 2000 · +52.1 pts
Republican
Thomas E. Dewey1944
+27.7pts R vs U.S.
Place R+20.2 · U.S. D+7.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Wendell Willkie, 1940 · +20.5 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 67.4%24,609 | 32.6%11,924 | 36,533 |
With a 2024 presidential margin of D+13.7, Assembly District 38 sits in the competitive-to-safe middle ground of New York's legislative map, reflecting the suburban demographic shifts that have reshaped downstate constituencies over the past decade.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 58.7 points in 2012 and a Republican high of 42.3 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 29.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 13.7 points.
A population of 132,517, a 21% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $91,833 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Assembly District 34 and Assembly District 35.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
New York 38th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/36038/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.