akashic
1876–2024
Assembly District 12·New York

New York 12th State House District delivered R+10 in 2024.

A competitive suburban seat that shifted toward Republicans by 6.8 points in 2024

1876 — 2024·38 elections
NY
Latest
R+10
in 2024
Archetype
Bellwether
since the recent cycles
Population
77,156
2024 ACS

New York 12th State House District, New York: Bellwether district. In 2024, voted R+10%. Republican peak: R+55 in 1956.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+10MIT Election Lab
Political archetype
BellwetherAkashic typology
Population
77,1562024 5-year
Median household income
$130,6862024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
65.8%2024 5-year
Black
7.5%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
22.8%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+16 in 1996MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+55 in 1956MIT Election Lab
2024 results by constituent county
1 counties · 0 D · 1 R
R+60
D+60
One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−9.9%
17,23621,05538,466
R
−0.0%
19,21319,22438,915
R
−6.8%
15,32617,67734,352
D
+3.7%
15,33314,22629,965
D
+6.0%
17,47415,48133,269
D
+0.9%
15,92915,62932,207
D
+11.4%
15,44512,15228,941
D
+15.7%
13,2029,20325,475
R
−1.5%
11,13411,57128,639
R
−21.8%
10,04515,69425,936
R
−32.3%
8,63716,91725,618
R
−23.6%
7,56112,92322,673
R
−8.8%
10,50112,55123,198
R
−40.9%
6,67815,95722,686
R
−25.5%
6,18210,99418,897
D
+11.1%
9,1077,27916,405
R
−18.7%
5,7508,40314,166
R
−55.3%
2,4378,46110,898
R
−49.3%
1,9735,8287,818
R
−42.9%
1,4683,8085,459
R
−35.4%
1,5753,3104,898
R
−30.5%
1,7073,2134,933
R
−18.8%
1,6682,4694,253
R
−13.0%
1,5532,0293,657
R
−34.3%
9832,0773,193
R
−47.2%
5051,5862,292
R
−48.9%
4461,3481,844
R
−20.1%
4256431,085
D
+11.6%
397282991
R
−27.2%
296539894
R
−18.0%
343501876
R
−24.3%
288483802
R
−39.1%
195473711
R
−5.2%
316353716
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Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
Italian
20.6%
Irish
16.2%
German
11.0%
English
4.2%
Polish
4.0%
American
3.9%
French
1.0%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 41.7 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.8%
85+
1.4%
2.3%
75–84
3.1%
4.9%
65–74
5.4%
7.4%
55–64
7.5%
6.6%
45–54
6.6%
6.1%
35–44
5.9%
6.3%
25–34
6.0%
4.6%
18–24
4.4%
7.9%
5–17
7.6%
2.7%
<5
2.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Median household income
2024 inflation-adjusted dollars
$130,686
Assembly District 12 ranks near the middle of US counties.
Assembly District 12$130,686
New York$85,974
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
6.4%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 187.1%
Working age (18–64)6.0%
Seniors (65+)8.9%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
75.2%
speak English only
Spanish16.1%
Other Indo-European5.9%
Asian & Pacific Islander2.1%
Other languages0.7%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
55.3%
Non-Christian
3.3%
Other Christian
2.9%
Mainline Protestant
2.8%
Pentecostal & Holiness
1.1%
Methodist
1.1%
Baptist
0.5%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 33.0% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Assembly District 12 sits in New York's suburban ring, where a 6.8-point Republican lean in the 2024 presidential race reflects broader shifts among working- and middle-class voters that have reshaped competitive state legislative maps across the region.

The Democratic margin in New York 12th State House District has rarely exceeded sixteen points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded fifty-five points. 2024 delivered the district to the Republican candidate by ten points.

Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most districts. A 66% non-Hispanic-white share, a 6% poverty rate, and a median household income of $130,686 — all within the broad national range.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Assembly District 12, New York. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/36012/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Assembly District 12, New York vote in 2024?
In 2024, Assembly District 12, New York voted Republican by 9.9 points (R+10), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 38,466 votes cast, 17,236 went Democratic and 21,055 went Republican.
What is Assembly District 12, New York's political archetype?
Akashic classifies Assembly District 12, New York as a "Bellwether" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 7 times, Republican 27 times, and other 0 times.
When did Assembly District 12, New York last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Assembly District 12, New York voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Assembly District 12, New York?
Assembly District 12, New York has a population of 77,156 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Assembly District 12, New York?
Median household income in Assembly District 12, New York is $130,686 — above the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of Assembly District 12, New York?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Assembly District 12, New York from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 7 went Democratic and 27 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.