- Lead
- 5,925
- Total
- 8,370
- vs nation
- D+72.3
New Hampshire State House District Grafton 12
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 6,220
- Total
- 8,418
- vs nation
- D+69.4
- Lead
- 6,288
- Total
- 9,032
- vs nation
- D+67.5
- Lead
- 5,941
- Total
- 8,803
- vs nation
- D+63.6
- Lead
- 6,395
- Total
- 9,124
- vs nation
- D+62.8
- Lead
- 4,133
- Total
- 7,815
- vs nation
- D+55.3
- Lead
- 2,538
- Total
- 6,000
- vs nation
- D+41.8
- Lead
- 2,759
- Total
- 5,585
- vs nation
- D+40.9
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+70.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 13,6152024 5-year
- Population density
- 132 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 103 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $164,5392024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 79.9%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+73.9 in 2020MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+4.5 in 1956MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District Grafton 15, NH · twin score 91.0
presidential history
Party record book
New Hampshire State House District Grafton 12 · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
86.5%
7,279 votes · D+73.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 84.7%
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
52.3%
1,375 votes · R+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 50.3%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
7,718votes
84.6% of the vote · D+70.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · 7,446 votes
Republican
George W. Bush2004
1,812votes
23.2% of the vote · D+52.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George H. W. Bush, 1988 · 1,704 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+72.3pts D vs U.S.
Place D+70.8 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +69.4 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
−3.7pts R vs U.S.
Place R+2.4 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Alf Landon, 1936 · −7.3 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 60.5%4,846 | 39.5%3,167 | 8,013 |
Grafton 12 recorded a Democratic presidential margin of 70.8 points in 2024, an outlier even among New England legislative districts. Its small population of roughly 13,600 suggests a compact, heavily college-town-influenced electorate.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 73.9 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 4.5 points in 1956. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 70.8 points.
A population of 13,615, a 80% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $164,539 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District Grafton 15 and State House District 115.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
New Hampshire State House District Grafton 12. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/33412/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.