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state house district

Missouri 154th State House District

Office (updates table and map)

President margin by year

Place winner margin

1876–2024 · D minus R

Full record · 1876 → 2024

2024

Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab

The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the district’s overall result across 1892–2024, on its current boundaries.

People and households

Who lives here

Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.

Race · ethnicity · ancestry

Communities and origins

English15.1%11.9%9.5%

German13.6%21.3%12.5%

Irish12.1%11.8%9.4%

American9.0%6.8%5.3%

Italian2.3%3.2%4.8%

French2.0%2.2%1.6%

Dutch1.4%——

Norwegian1.4%——

Mexican1.2%3.2%11.3%

Spanish0.4%——

Spaniard0.3%——

Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.

Age and life stage

Measure	MO HD 154	Missouri	United States
Median age	40.3	39.2	39.1
Age 18–24	7.8%	9.2%	9.2%
Age 65 and older	19.9%	17.9%	17.2%

Household economy

Measure	MO HD 154	Missouri	United States
Median household income	$50,955	$70,702	$84,427
Poverty rate	20.2%	12.6%	12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)	17.8%	32.4%	35.6%

Housing and tenure

Measure	MO HD 154	Missouri	United States
Owner-occupied homes	69.9%	68.1%	65.2%
Renter-occupied homes	30.1%	31.9%	34.8%
Median home value	$173,200	$230,300	$332,700
Median gross rent (monthly)	$735	$1,033	$1,413
Renters paying 30%+ of income	45.5%	45.6%	51.1%
Vacant housing units	12.0%	11.2%	10.1%

Getting to work

Measure	MO HD 154	Missouri	United States
Mean commute	23.4 min	23.5 min	26.4 min
Commutes 60 minutes or more	9.6%	5.4%	8.6%
Drives alone to work	78.4%	74.8%	68.8%
Takes public transit	0.1%	0.8%	3.2%
Works from home	6.0%	13.0%	15.1%

Languages at home

Measure	MO HD 154	Missouri	United States
Speaks a non-English language at home	3.1%	6.7%	22.3%
Spanish	1.3%	2.9%	13.6%
Russian, Polish, or other Slavic	1.0%	0.5%	0.7%

Religious landscape

Measure	MO HD 154	Missouri	United States
Catholic	—	12.5%	18.6%
Evangelical Protestant	—	24.1%	16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted	—	51.7%	51.5%

Origins and service

Measure	MO HD 154	Missouri	United States
Foreign-born residents	1.2%	4.5%	14.1%
Naturalized citizens	0.7%	2.3%	7.4%
Not U.S. citizens	0.6%	2.2%	6.8%
Veterans (18+)	9.3%	7.3%	6.2%
Income inequality (Gini)	0.461	0.465	0.483

American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations · American Community Survey 2024 — housing and tenure (B25003, B25002, B25077, B25064, B25070), commuting (B08013, B08303, B08301), origins and service (B05002, B21001, B19083).

President results by year

Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries

HarrisDemocratic16.2%3,021TrumpRepublican82.9%15,416OtherAll other candidates0.9%159

R+66.7

Lead: 12,395
Total: 18,596
vs nation: R+65.2

modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate

BidenDemocratic17.3%3,151TrumpRepublican81.4%14,859OtherAll other candidates1.3%245

R+64.1

Lead: 11,708
Total: 18,255
vs nation: R+68.6

modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate

ClintonDemocratic16.6%2,831TrumpRepublican79.6%13,610OtherAll other candidates3.9%664

R+63.0

Lead: 10,779
Total: 17,105
vs nation: R+65.1

modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate

ObamaDemocratic26.9%4,313RomneyRepublican70.6%11,306OtherAll other candidates2.4%392

R+43.7

Lead: 6,993
Total: 16,011
vs nation: R+47.5

modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate

ObamaDemocratic33.8%5,636McCainRepublican64.5%10,760OtherAll other candidates1.8%296

R+30.7

Lead: 5,124
Total: 16,692
vs nation: R+38.0

modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate

KerryDemocratic31.3%5,026BushRepublican67.8%10,874OtherAll other candidates0.9%150

R+36.4

Lead: 5,848
Total: 16,050
vs nation: R+34.0

modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate

GoreDemocratic33.0%4,558BushRepublican64.0%8,834OtherAll other candidates2.9%401

R+31.0

Lead: 4,276
Total: 13,793
vs nation: R+31.5

modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate

ClintonDemocratic39.0%5,167DoleRepublican44.3%5,867OtherAll other candidates16.7%2,209

R+5.3

Lead: 700
Total: 13,243
vs nation: R+13.8

modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+66.7MIT Election Lab
Population: 38,8892024 5-year
Population density: 43 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area: 899 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income: $50,9552024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 90.4%2024 5-year
Black: 0.4%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 2.3%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+19.7 in 1880MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+66.7 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Most similar: State House District 125, MO · twin score 98.5

presidential history

Party record book

Missouri 154th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.

1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark

Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.

Democratic

Franklin D. Roosevelt1932

56.0%

4,692 votes · D+13.2 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1896 · 55.3%

Republican

Donald Trump2024

82.9%

15,416 votes · R+66.7 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 81.4%

Most votes

Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.

Democratic

Barack Obama2008

5,636votes

33.8% of the vote · R+30.7 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Bill Clinton, 1992 · 5,395 votes

Republican

Donald Trump2024

15,416votes

82.9% of the vote · R+66.7 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 14,859 votes

Best relative to the U.S.

This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.

Democratic

John W. Davis1924

+18.4pts D vs U.S.

Place R+6.8 · U.S. R+25.2 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1896 · +17.4 pts

Republican

Donald Trump2020

+68.6pts R vs U.S.

Place R+64.1 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · +65.2 pts

current representation

Current officeholders

RLisa DurnellState House · 154

State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.

U.S. House elections · 2 House

Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.

U.S. House

Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Source · Akashic county-allocated estimate from certified county returns, House; not precinct-counted.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	15.5%2,784	84.5%15,230	18,014
2018	R	19.5%2,664	80.5%11,011	13,675

With a 2024 presidential margin of R+66.7, this district ranks among the most heavily one-sided in the state, reflecting the deep rural consolidation that has reshaped Missouri's legislative map over the past two decades.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 19.7 points in 1880 and a Republican high of 66.7 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 2.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 66.7 points.

A population of 38,889, a 90% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $50,955 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 125 and State House District 120.

Political twins — state-house districts

The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

State House District 125

2016–2024 trajectoryelasticity

State House District 120

2012–2024 trajectory≠ Scottish ancestry

State House District 5

2016–2024 trajectory12-yr trend

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.

District research tools

Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

Missouri 154th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/29154/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.

License: CC BY 4.0

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Places within Missouri 154th State House District

counties it covers1

Frequently asked questions

How did Missouri 154th State House District vote in 2024?

In 2024, Missouri 154th State House District voted Republican by 66.7 points (R+66.7), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 18,596 votes cast, 3,021 went Democratic and 15,416 went Republican.

When did Missouri 154th State House District last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Missouri 154th State House District voted Democratic was 1992.

How many people live in Missouri 154th State House District?

Missouri 154th State House District has a population of 38,889 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Missouri 154th State House District?

Median household income in Missouri 154th State House District is $50,955 — below the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.

What is the political history of Missouri 154th State House District?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Missouri 154th State House District from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 11 went Democratic and 27 went Republican.