- Lead
- 7,619
- Total
- 18,624
- vs nation
- R+39.4
Missouri 49th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 7,306
- Total
- 18,072
- vs nation
- R+44.9
- Lead
- 6,603
- Total
- 16,642
- vs nation
- R+41.8
- Lead
- 4,496
- Total
- 15,641
- vs nation
- R+32.6
- Lead
- 2,941
- Total
- 16,609
- vs nation
- R+25.0
- Lead
- 3,502
- Total
- 15,344
- vs nation
- R+20.4
- Lead
- 928
- Total
- 13,221
- vs nation
- R+7.5
- Lead
- 552
- Total
- 11,369
- vs nation
- R+3.7
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+40.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 38,8682024 5-year
- Population density
- 68 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 571 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $75,0502024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 86.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 4.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+57.6 in 1876MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+40.9 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 59, KS · twin score 96.7
presidential history
Party record book
Missouri 49th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Samuel J. Tilden1876
78.8%
3,084 votes · D+57.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 77.6%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
69.7%
12,974 votes · R+40.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 69.1%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
6,692votes
40.3% of the vote · R+17.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1940 · 6,304 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
12,974votes
69.7% of the vote · R+40.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 12,488 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+62.2pts D vs U.S.
Place D+37.1 · U.S. R+25.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · James M. Cox, 1920 · +58.2 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+44.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+40.4 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · +41.8 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | R | 28.8%4,093 | 71.2%10,139 | 14,232 |
Missouri 49th State House District sits in the Border South. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 57.6 points in 1876 and a Republican high of 40.9 points in 2024. The 2024 margin was 40.9 points.
A population of 38,868, a 86% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $75,050 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 59 and State House District 62.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Missouri 49th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/29049/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.