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Akashic

state house district

Missouri 40th State House District

Office (updates table and map)

President margin by year

Place winner margin

1876–2024 · D minus R

Full record · 1876 → 2024

2024

Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab

The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the district’s overall result across 1892–2024, on its current boundaries.

People and households

Who lives here

Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.

Race · ethnicity · ancestry

Communities and origins

German25.2%21.3%12.5%

Irish13.5%11.8%9.4%

English9.4%11.9%9.5%

American6.0%6.8%5.3%

Italian3.4%3.2%4.8%

Polish2.4%1.3%2.2%

French2.2%2.2%1.6%

Scottish1.5%1.8%1.3%

African American†3.0%10.0%9.9%

Mexican1.3%3.2%11.3%

Guatemalan0.3%0.2%0.5%

Cuban0.2%—0.7%

Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.

Age and life stage

Measure	MO HD 40	Missouri	United States
Median age	41.3	39.2	39.1
Age 18–24	7.4%	9.2%	9.2%
Age 65 and older	16.0%	17.9%	17.2%

Household economy

Measure	MO HD 40	Missouri	United States
Median household income	$75,109	$70,702	$84,427
Poverty rate	14.0%	12.6%	12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)	17.9%	32.4%	35.6%

Housing and tenure

Measure	MO HD 40	Missouri	United States
Owner-occupied homes	75.9%	68.1%	65.2%
Renter-occupied homes	24.1%	31.9%	34.8%
Median home value	$182,900	$230,300	$332,700
Median gross rent (monthly)	$862	$1,033	$1,413
Renters paying 30%+ of income	35.1%	45.6%	51.1%
Vacant housing units	11.4%	11.2%	10.1%

Getting to work

Measure	MO HD 40	Missouri	United States
Mean commute	29.8 min	23.5 min	26.4 min
Commutes 60 minutes or more	12.0%	5.4%	8.6%
Drives alone to work	83.5%	74.8%	68.8%
Takes public transit	0.1%	0.8%	3.2%
Works from home	4.7%	13.0%	15.1%

Languages at home

Measure	MO HD 40	Missouri	United States
Speaks a non-English language at home	3.1%	6.7%	22.3%
Spanish	1.8%	2.9%	13.6%

Religious landscape

Measure	MO HD 40	Missouri	United States
Catholic	—	12.5%	18.6%
Evangelical Protestant	—	24.1%	16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted	—	51.7%	51.5%

Origins and service

Measure	MO HD 40	Missouri	United States
Foreign-born residents	1.0%	4.5%	14.1%
Naturalized citizens	0.5%	2.3%	7.4%
Not U.S. citizens	0.5%	2.2%	6.8%
Veterans (18+)	6.4%	7.3%	6.2%
Income inequality (Gini)	0.416	0.465	0.483

American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations · American Community Survey 2024 — housing and tenure (B25003, B25002, B25077, B25064, B25070), commuting (B08013, B08303, B08301), origins and service (B05002, B21001, B19083).

President results by year

Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries

HarrisDemocratic19.9%3,827TrumpRepublican79.2%15,219OtherAll other candidates0.9%165

R+59.3

Lead: 11,392
Total: 19,211
vs nation: R+57.8

modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate

BidenDemocratic21.6%4,108TrumpRepublican76.8%14,585OtherAll other candidates1.5%293

R+55.2

Lead: 10,477
Total: 18,986
vs nation: R+59.6

modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate

ClintonDemocratic22.6%3,820TrumpRepublican72.6%12,254OtherAll other candidates4.8%806

R+50.0

Lead: 8,434
Total: 16,880
vs nation: R+52.1

modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate

ObamaDemocratic33.8%5,366RomneyRepublican63.6%10,100OtherAll other candidates2.6%415

R+29.8

Lead: 4,734
Total: 15,881
vs nation: R+33.7

modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate

ObamaDemocratic43.0%7,201McCainRepublican55.1%9,232OtherAll other candidates2.0%333

R+12.1

Lead: 2,031
Total: 16,766
vs nation: R+19.4

modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate

KerryDemocratic43.2%6,674BushRepublican56.1%8,663OtherAll other candidates0.7%103

R+12.9

Lead: 1,989
Total: 15,440
vs nation: R+10.4

modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate

GoreDemocratic45.7%6,076BushRepublican52.1%6,930OtherAll other candidates2.2%289

R+6.4

Lead: 854
Total: 13,295
vs nation: R+6.9

modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate

ClintonDemocratic48.8%5,529DoleRepublican36.2%4,097OtherAll other candidates15.0%1,700

D+12.6

Lead: 1,432
Total: 11,326
vs nation: D+4.1

modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+59.3MIT Election Lab
Population: 38,7192024 5-year
Population density: 35 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area: 1,117 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income: $75,1092024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 89.3%2024 5-year
Black: 2.9%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 2.1%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+43.4 in 1964MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+59.3 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Most similar: State House District 42, MO · twin score 97.3

presidential history

Party record book

Missouri 40th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.

1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark

Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.

Democratic

Lyndon B. Johnson1964

71.7%

7,101 votes · D+43.4 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 69.9%

Republican

Donald Trump2024

79.2%

15,219 votes · R+59.3 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 76.8%

Most votes

Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.

Democratic

Franklin D. Roosevelt1936

7,592votes

66.6% of the vote · D+33.8 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 7,415 votes

Republican

Donald Trump2024

15,219votes

79.2% of the vote · R+59.3 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 14,585 votes

Best relative to the U.S.

This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.

Democratic

James M. Cox1920

+37.3pts D vs U.S.

Place D+11.2 · U.S. R+26.2 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Alton B. Parker, 1904 · +33.1 pts

Republican

Donald Trump2020

+59.6pts R vs U.S.

Place R+55.2 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · +57.8 pts

current representation

Current officeholders

RChad PerkinsState House · 40

State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.

U.S. House elections · 2 House

Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.

U.S. House

Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Source · Akashic county-allocated estimate from certified county returns, House; not precinct-counted.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	20.6%3,595	79.4%13,894	17,489
2018	R	29.1%2,182	70.9%5,319	7,501

With a 2024 presidential margin of R+59.3, this district sits at the far end of Missouri's partisan distribution. Districts at this extreme typically feature rural, low-density geographies where one party's coalition dominates across nearly every precinct.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 43.4 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 59.3 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 4.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 59.3 points.

A population of 38,719, a 89% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $75,109 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 42 and State House District 16.

Political twins — state-house districts

The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

State House District 42

elasticity2016–2024 trajectory≠ Scottish ancestry

State House District 16

12-yr trend2016–2024 trajectory

State House District 41

elasticity2016–2024 trajectory≠ median age

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.

District research tools

Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

Missouri 40th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/29040/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.

License: CC BY 4.0

Missouri at the ballot boxAll elections →

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Places within Missouri 40th State House District

counties it covers2

Lincoln County Pike County

Frequently asked questions

How did Missouri 40th State House District vote in 2024?

In 2024, Missouri 40th State House District voted Republican by 59.3 points (R+59.3), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 19,211 votes cast, 3,827 went Democratic and 15,219 went Republican.

When did Missouri 40th State House District last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Missouri 40th State House District voted Democratic was 1996.

How many people live in Missouri 40th State House District?

Missouri 40th State House District has a population of 38,719 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Missouri 40th State House District?

Median household income in Missouri 40th State House District is $75,109 — below the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.

What is the political history of Missouri 40th State House District?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Missouri 40th State House District from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 27 went Democratic and 11 went Republican.