- Lead
- 10,863
- Total
- 22,197
- vs nation
- D+50.4
Minnesota State House District 51A
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 11,899
- Total
- 23,983
- vs nation
- D+45.2
- Lead
- 8,738
- Total
- 21,545
- vs nation
- D+38.5
- Lead
- 7,239
- Total
- 21,534
- vs nation
- D+29.8
- Lead
- 7,466
- Total
- 20,827
- vs nation
- D+28.6
- Lead
- 5,461
- Total
- 20,207
- vs nation
- D+29.5
- Lead
- 3,772
- Total
- 17,819
- vs nation
- D+20.6
- Lead
- 4,544
- Total
- 16,440
- vs nation
- D+19.1
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+48.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 42,5862024 5-year
- Population density
- 2,820 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 15.1 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $86,5882024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 59.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 10.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 18.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+49.6 in 2020MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+71.1 in 1904MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 43B, MN · twin score 95.9
presidential history
Party record book
Minnesota State House District 51A · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
73.5%
17,622 votes · D+49.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 73.2%
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
79.8%
893 votes · R+71.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · James G. Blaine, 1884 · 71.6%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
17,622votes
73.5% of the vote · D+49.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 16,249 votes
Republican
George W. Bush2004
7,221votes
35.7% of the vote · D+27.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 7,204 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+50.4pts D vs U.S.
Place D+48.9 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +45.2 pts
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
+51.5pts R vs U.S.
Place R+71.1 · U.S. R+19.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Calvin Coolidge, 1924 · +24.5 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 67.2%15,486 | 32.8%7,575 | 23,061 |
With a 2024 presidential margin of nearly D+49, this Minneapolis-area district ranks among the most one-sided state house seats in Minnesota, reflecting a dense, urban electorate that votes overwhelmingly Democratic at every level.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 49.6 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 71.1 points in 1904. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 0.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 48.9 points.
A population of 42,586, a 59% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $86,588 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 43B and State House District 51B.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Minnesota State House District 51A. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/2751A/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.