- Lead
- 9,984
- Total
- 55,170
- vs nation
- D+19.6
Michigan 40th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 9,677
- Total
- 54,269
- vs nation
- D+13.4
- Lead
- 4,251
- Total
- 46,779
- vs nation
- D+7.0
- Lead
- 4,284
- Total
- 46,061
- vs nation
- D+5.4
- Lead
- 7,597
- Total
- 48,548
- vs nation
- D+8.4
- Lead
- 185
- Total
- 44,575
- vs nation
- D+2.0
- Lead
- 1,163
- Total
- 37,400
- vs nation
- R+3.6
- Lead
- 601
- Total
- 34,519
- vs nation
- R+6.8
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+18.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 90,2112024 5-year
- Population density
- 943 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 95.7 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $85,7822024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 78.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 7.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+18.1 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+62.2 in 1924MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 81, MI · twin score 88.9
presidential history
Party record book
Michigan 40th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
58.2%
32,109 votes · D+18.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 58.0%
Republican
Herbert Hoover1928
80.2%
9,182 votes · R+61.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Calvin Coolidge, 1924 · 76.4%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
32,109votes
58.2% of the vote · D+18.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 31,473 votes
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
22,664votes
65.7% of the vote · R+32.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 22,176 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+19.6pts D vs U.S.
Place D+18.1 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +13.4 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+46.8pts R vs U.S.
Place R+52.9 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Herbert Hoover, 1928 · +43.9 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 56.2%27,068 | 43.8%21,081 | 48,149 |
| 2020 | D | 52.4%24,578 | 47.6%22,369 | 46,947 |
With a 2024 presidential margin of D+18, this 90,000-resident district leans well left of the statewide median, suggesting a dense urban or inner-suburban constituency where Democratic turnout operations face little structural resistance.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 18.1 points in 2024 and a Republican high of 62.2 points in 1924. The 2024 margin was 18.1 points.
A population of 90,211, a 78% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $85,782 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 81 and State House District 80.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Michigan 40th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/26040/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.