- Lead
- 1,015
- Total
- 19,885
- vs nation
- D+6.6
Massachusetts 51st State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 2,938
- Total
- 20,854
- vs nation
- D+9.6
- Lead
- 1,531
- Total
- 19,835
- vs nation
- D+5.6
- Lead
- 3,088
- Total
- 18,409
- vs nation
- D+12.9
- Lead
- 3,085
- Total
- 18,321
- vs nation
- D+9.6
- Lead
- 2,437
- Total
- 17,319
- vs nation
- D+16.5
- Lead
- 2,419
- Total
- 16,156
- vs nation
- D+14.5
- Lead
- 3,994
- Total
- 16,103
- vs nation
- D+16.3
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+5.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 43,2802024 5-year
- Population density
- 2,132 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 20.3 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $64,5172024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 70.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 20.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+42.7 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+47.5 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- 6th Hampden District, MA · twin score 96.2
presidential history
Party record book
Massachusetts 51st State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
71.0%
11,455 votes · D+42.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Hubert Humphrey, 1968 · 58.2%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
72.2%
4,863 votes · R+47.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1896 · 69.6%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
11,620votes
55.7% of the vote · D+14.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 11,455 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
10,859votes
60.3% of the vote · R+21.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 10,261 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Hubert Humphrey1968
+23.9pts D vs U.S.
Place D+23.2 · U.S. R+0.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · +20.1 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+41.4pts R vs U.S.
Place R+47.5 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William H. Taft, 1912 · +28.4 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | D | 99.9%15,066 | 0.1%9 | 15,075 |
Anchored in the Springfield metro area of western Massachusetts, this district posts a modest Democratic lean at the presidential level while reflecting the working-class and Latino demographic shifts reshaping Hampden County's legislative map.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 42.7 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 47.5 points in 1896. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 9.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 5.1 points.
A population of 43,280, a 70% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $64,517 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of 6th Hampden District and 6th Worcester District.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Massachusetts 51st State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/25051/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.