- Lead
- 9,767
- Total
- 25,275
- vs nation
- D+40.1
Massachusetts 31st State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 12,111
- Total
- 26,713
- vs nation
- D+40.9
- Lead
- 8,612
- Total
- 24,738
- vs nation
- D+32.7
- Lead
- 6,953
- Total
- 22,706
- vs nation
- D+26.8
- Lead
- 7,641
- Total
- 22,108
- vs nation
- D+27.3
- Lead
- 6,690
- Total
- 20,792
- vs nation
- D+34.6
- Lead
- 6,889
- Total
- 19,519
- vs nation
- D+34.8
- Lead
- 7,410
- Total
- 18,683
- vs nation
- D+31.1
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+38.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 42,8802024 5-year
- Population density
- 5,569 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 7.7 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $134,6882024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 79.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 10.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+59.9 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+37.1 in 1924MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- 3rd Middlesex District, MA · twin score 94.4
presidential history
Party record book
Massachusetts 31st State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
79.8%
14,718 votes · D+59.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 71.6%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
65.3%
4,878 votes · R+36.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Calvin Coolidge, 1924 · 59.8%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
19,138votes
71.6% of the vote · D+45.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 17,158 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
8,488votes
52.5% of the vote · R+5.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 8,291 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
George McGovern1972
+45.0pts D vs U.S.
Place D+21.9 · U.S. R+23.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +40.9 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+25.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+32.0 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Calvin Coolidge, 1924 · +11.9 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 100.0%15,825 | 0.0%0 | 15,825 |
| 2020 | D | 73.6%15,029 | 26.4%5,389 | 20,418 |
Anchored in the dense, working-class neighborhoods of Lawrence, the 8th Essex District delivers Democratic presidential margins above 35 points, reflecting a majority-Latino electorate with deep roots in Dominican and Puerto Rican communities.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 59.9 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 37.1 points in 1924. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 6.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 38.6 points.
A population of 42,880, a 80% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $134,688 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of 3rd Middlesex District and 6th Essex District.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Massachusetts 31st State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/25031/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.