- Lead
- 9
- Total
- 19,393
- vs nation
- D+1.4
Massachusetts 49th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 1,708
- Total
- 20,250
- vs nation
- D+4.0
- Lead
- 617
- Total
- 18,778
- vs nation
- D+1.2
- Lead
- 2,056
- Total
- 17,343
- vs nation
- D+8.0
- Lead
- 2,082
- Total
- 17,350
- vs nation
- D+4.7
- Lead
- 1,502
- Total
- 16,418
- vs nation
- D+11.6
- Lead
- 1,644
- Total
- 15,247
- vs nation
- D+10.3
- Lead
- 3,153
- Total
- 15,125
- vs nation
- D+12.3
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+0.05MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 44,3512024 5-year
- Population density
- 1,912 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 23.2 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $69,6622024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 70.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 16.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+38.4 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+51.1 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- 8th Hampden District, MA · twin score 96.2
presidential history
Party record book
Massachusetts 49th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
68.9%
10,385 votes · D+38.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Hubert Humphrey, 1968 · 55.9%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
73.9%
4,836 votes · R+50.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1896 · 71.6%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
10,776votes
53.2% of the vote · D+8.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 10,385 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
10,867votes
62.6% of the vote · R+25.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 10,246 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Hubert Humphrey1968
+19.4pts D vs U.S.
Place D+18.8 · U.S. R+0.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · +15.8 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+45.0pts R vs U.S.
Place R+51.1 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William H. Taft, 1912 · +32.3 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 100.0%11,667 | 0.0%0 | 11,667 |
| 2020 | D | 99.9%15,439 | 0.1%9 | 15,448 |
With a 2024 presidential margin of R+0.1, this Hampden County district sits almost exactly on the statewide competitive edge, reflecting the area's blend of working-class post-industrial communities and shifting suburban precincts.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 38.4 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 51.1 points in 1896. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 8.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 0.0 points.
A population of 44,351, a 71% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $69,662 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of 8th Hampden District and 12th Hampden District.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Massachusetts 49th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/25049/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.