- Lead
- 2,147
- Total
- 25,715
- vs nation
- D+9.8
Massachusetts 45th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 4,037
- Total
- 26,955
- vs nation
- D+10.5
- Lead
- 1,538
- Total
- 24,890
- vs nation
- D+4.1
- Lead
- 3,483
- Total
- 23,173
- vs nation
- D+11.2
- Lead
- 3,497
- Total
- 23,191
- vs nation
- D+7.8
- Lead
- 2,697
- Total
- 22,008
- vs nation
- D+14.7
- Lead
- 2,755
- Total
- 20,198
- vs nation
- D+13.1
- Lead
- 4,803
- Total
- 20,114
- vs nation
- D+15.4
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+8.3MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 43,5072024 5-year
- Population density
- 615 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 70.7 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $113,9972024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 81.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 6.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+41.3 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+52.2 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- 12th Hampden District, MA · twin score 86.9
presidential history
Party record book
Massachusetts 45th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
70.4%
14,309 votes · D+41.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Hubert Humphrey, 1968 · 57.5%
Republican
William McKinley1896
73.2%
2,152 votes · R+52.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 72.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
15,169votes
56.3% of the vote · D+15.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 14,309 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
14,058votes
61.2% of the vote · R+22.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 13,231 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Hubert Humphrey1968
+22.3pts D vs U.S.
Place D+21.6 · U.S. R+0.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · +18.7 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+46.1pts R vs U.S.
Place R+52.2 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William H. Taft, 1912 · +30.7 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Anchored in Hampden County's urban core, the 2nd Hampden District delivered an 8-point Democratic margin in 2024 — competitive enough that shifts in Springfield's working-class neighborhoods can meaningfully move results.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 41.3 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 52.2 points in 1896. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 6.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 8.3 points.
A population of 43,507, a 82% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $113,997 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of 12th Hampden District and 4th Hampden District.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Massachusetts 45th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/25045/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.