- Lead
- 645
- Total
- 24,246
- vs nation
- D+4.1
Massachusetts 38th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 2,464
- Total
- 24,673
- vs nation
- D+5.5
- Lead
- 209
- Total
- 22,499
- vs nation
- R+1.2
- Lead
- 1,460
- Total
- 21,263
- vs nation
- R+10.7
- Lead
- 477
- Total
- 20,489
- vs nation
- R+9.6
- Lead
- 1,031
- Total
- 19,449
- vs nation
- R+2.8
- Lead
- 131
- Total
- 17,796
- vs nation
- D+0.2
- Lead
- 1,352
- Total
- 16,373
- vs nation
- R+0.3
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+2.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 44,9482024 5-year
- Population density
- 1,555 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 28.9 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $113,1392024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 73.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 15.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+29.3 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+64.1 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- 9th Essex District, MA · twin score 94.4
presidential history
Party record book
Massachusetts 38th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
64.5%
9,864 votes · D+29.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 53.9%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
80.1%
7,112 votes · R+64.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1896 · 77.8%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
13,311votes
53.9% of the vote · D+10.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 12,221 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
12,458votes
70.5% of the vote · R+41.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 12,150 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
+6.7pts D vs U.S.
Place D+29.3 · U.S. D+22.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George McGovern, 1972 · +6.4 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+56.1pts R vs U.S.
Place R+62.2 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Herbert Hoover, 1932 · +42.1 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 100.0%16,588 | 0.0%0 | 16,588 |
| 2020 | D | 73.6%15,754 | 26.4%5,649 | 21,403 |
With a 2024 presidential margin of just D+2.6, the 15th Essex District sits well below the statewide Democratic baseline, making it a reliable bellwether for how working-class North Shore communities split their tickets.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 29.3 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 64.1 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 7.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 2.7 points.
A population of 44,948, a 73% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $113,139 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of 9th Essex District and 1st Bristol District.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Massachusetts 38th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/25038/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.