- Lead
- 2,798
- Total
- 24,332
- vs nation
- D+13.0
Massachusetts 10th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 5,181
- Total
- 24,925
- vs nation
- D+16.3
- Lead
- 2,080
- Total
- 22,763
- vs nation
- D+7.0
- Lead
- 1,904
- Total
- 21,202
- vs nation
- D+5.1
- Lead
- 2,521
- Total
- 21,278
- vs nation
- D+4.6
- Lead
- 3,212
- Total
- 20,309
- vs nation
- D+18.3
- Lead
- 4,090
- Total
- 18,900
- vs nation
- D+21.1
- Lead
- 4,719
- Total
- 17,991
- vs nation
- D+17.7
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+11.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 42,3672024 5-year
- Population density
- 937 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 45.2 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $117,0402024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 84.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+44.9 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+58.3 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- 1st Middlesex District, MA · twin score 92.5
presidential history
Party record book
Massachusetts 10th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
72.2%
11,244 votes · D+44.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 59.1%
Republican
William McKinley1896
75.3%
1,618 votes · R+58.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 74.8%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
14,742votes
59.1% of the vote · D+20.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 13,211 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
10,515votes
65.4% of the vote · R+31.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 10,413 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
+22.3pts D vs U.S.
Place D+44.9 · U.S. D+22.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George McGovern, 1972 · +21.3 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+52.2pts R vs U.S.
Place R+58.3 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1900 · +30.6 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 81.1%13,938 | 18.9%3,238 | 17,176 |
| 2020 | D | 68.2%13,073 | 31.8%6,092 | 19,165 |
About 2.9 percent of 1st Bristol District residents reported Portuguese ancestry in the 2024 ACS five-year estimate, roughly 7.5 times the national rate of 0.4 percent. Another 3.1 percent reported French Canadian ancestry, roughly 6.7 times the national rate of 0.5 percent. The district recorded a population of 63,361 in the 2024 ACS five-year estimate, with a median age of 40.9. Across presidential elections from 2008 to 2024, the district recorded its largest two-party swing between consecutive elections from 2016 to 2020, moving 11 points toward the Democratic candidate. That movement carried it to its strongest Democratic margin of D+21 in 2020. In 2024 the district delivered D+11, narrowing from the 2020 peak while remaining on the Democratic side of the ledger.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 44.9 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 58.3 points in 1896. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 9.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 11.5 points.
A population of 42,367, a 84% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $117,040 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of 1st Middlesex District and 15th Essex District.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Massachusetts 10th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/25010/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.