- Lead
- 652
- Total
- 6,392
- vs nation
- R+8.7
Hawaii 45th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 153
- Total
- 7,004
- vs nation
- R+2.3
- Lead
- 728
- Total
- 5,094
- vs nation
- D+12.2
- Lead
- 1,192
- Total
- 5,071
- vs nation
- D+19.7
- Lead
- 1,362
- Total
- 5,242
- vs nation
- D+18.7
- Lead
- 772
- Total
- 5,456
- vs nation
- R+11.7
- Lead
- 62
- Total
- 4,658
- vs nation
- R+1.9
- Lead
- 342
- Total
- 4,661
- vs nation
- R+1.2
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+10.2MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 27,3242024 5-year
- Population density
- 556 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 49.1 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $78,1452024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 11.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 15.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+43.7 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+41.9 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 44, HI · twin score 98.5
presidential history
Party record book
Hawaii 45th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1960–2024 · 17 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
71.9%
1,838 votes · D+43.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 62.1%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
71.0%
2,843 votes · R+41.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 64.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
3,499votes
50.0% of the vote · D+2.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 3,255 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
3,461votes
54.1% of the vote · R+10.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 3,346 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
+21.1pts D vs U.S.
Place D+43.7 · U.S. D+22.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · +19.7 pts
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
+18.8pts R vs U.S.
Place R+41.9 · U.S. R+23.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Gerald Ford, 1976 · +17.6 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Despite Hawaii's heavily Democratic statewide lean, this O'ahu district posted a R+10.2 presidential margin in 2024, making it an outlier worth watching for candidates mapping the state's shifting suburban and rural fault lines.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 43.7 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 41.9 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 12.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 10.2 points.
A population of 27,324, a 12% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $78,145 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 44 and State House District 42.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Hawaii 45th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/15045/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.