- Lead
- 740
- Total
- 8,648
- vs nation
- R+7.1
Hawaii 40th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 6
- Total
- 9,519
- vs nation
- R+4.5
- Lead
- 717
- Total
- 6,258
- vs nation
- D+9.4
- Lead
- 1,304
- Total
- 6,408
- vs nation
- D+16.5
- Lead
- 1,493
- Total
- 6,593
- vs nation
- D+15.4
- Lead
- 1,254
- Total
- 6,993
- vs nation
- R+15.5
- Lead
- 283
- Total
- 5,801
- vs nation
- R+5.4
- Lead
- 255
- Total
- 5,651
- vs nation
- R+4.0
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+8.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 29,9192024 5-year
- Population density
- 3,649 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 8.2 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $128,8262024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 12.9%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 11.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+40.7 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+44.5 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 43, HI · twin score 98.4
presidential history
Party record book
Hawaii 40th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1960–2024 · 17 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
70.4%
2,282 votes · D+40.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 60.8%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
72.2%
3,785 votes · R+44.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 66.1%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
4,681votes
49.2% of the vote · R+0.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 4,010 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2020
4,687votes
49.2% of the vote · R+0.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 4,629 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
+18.2pts D vs U.S.
Place D+40.7 · U.S. D+22.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · +16.5 pts
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
+21.3pts R vs U.S.
Place R+44.5 · U.S. R+23.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Gerald Ford, 1976 · +21.2 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Despite Hawaii's heavily Democratic statewide lean, this district delivered an R+8.6 presidential margin in 2024, signaling a voter profile — likely rural, military-adjacent, or outer-island — that diverges sharply from the archipelago's urban core.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 40.7 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 44.5 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 8.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 8.6 points.
A population of 29,919, a 13% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $128,826 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 43 and State House District 41.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Hawaii 40th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/15040/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.