- Lead
- 14,879
- Total
- 69,096
- vs nation
- D+23.0
Florida 21st State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 23,700
- Total
- 77,729
- vs nation
- D+26.0
- Lead
- 20,405
- Total
- 70,373
- vs nation
- D+26.9
- Lead
- 19,613
- Total
- 65,721
- vs nation
- D+26.0
- Lead
- 23,399
- Total
- 68,340
- vs nation
- D+27.0
- Lead
- 16,307
- Total
- 58,816
- vs nation
- D+30.2
- Lead
- 13,900
- Total
- 45,042
- vs nation
- D+30.3
- Lead
- 12,986
- Total
- 39,669
- vs nation
- D+24.2
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+21.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 176,4052024 5-year
- Population density
- 305 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 579 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $46,1272024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 46.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 29.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 13.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+83.9 in 1892MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 8, FL · twin score 91.2
presidential history
Party record book
Florida 21st State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2000–2024 · 7 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
66.4%
45,407 votes · D+34.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 64.6%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
38.5%
26,592 votes · D+21.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 35.6%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
50,214votes
64.6% of the vote · D+30.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 45,407 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
26,592votes
38.5% of the vote · D+21.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 26,514 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Al Gore2000
+30.3pts D vs U.S.
Place D+30.9 · U.S. D+0.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John Kerry, 2004 · +30.2 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2024
−23.0pts R vs U.S.
Place D+21.5 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · −26.0 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | D | 52.2%44,713 | 47.8%40,942 | 85,655 |
| 2018 | D | 54.0%37,629 | 46.0%32,009 | 69,638 |
Florida 21st State House District sits in the Gulf South and peninsula. In 2024 it voted Democratic.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 83.9 points in 1892. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 9.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 21.5 points.
A population of 176,405, a 47% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $46,127 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 8 and State House District 95.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Florida 21st State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/12021/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.