- Lead
- 2,204
- Total
- 12,087
- vs nation
- R+16.8
Connecticut 51st State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 1,537
- Total
- 12,329
- vs nation
- R+16.9
- Lead
- 1,931
- Total
- 10,580
- vs nation
- R+20.3
- Lead
- 206
- Total
- 9,439
- vs nation
- R+1.7
- Lead
- 392
- Total
- 10,267
- vs nation
- R+3.5
- Lead
- 480
- Total
- 9,961
- vs nation
- R+2.4
- Lead
- 529
- Total
- 8,914
- vs nation
- D+5.4
- Lead
- 991
- Total
- 8,610
- vs nation
- D+3.0
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+18.2MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 24,2882024 5-year
- Population density
- 261 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 93.1 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $83,9352024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 87.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+37.7 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+55.4 in 1896MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 47, CT · twin score 98.6
presidential history
Party record book
Connecticut 51st State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
68.8%
4,604 votes · D+37.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John F. Kennedy, 1960 · 51.4%
Republican
William McKinley1896
76.1%
1,248 votes · R+55.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1900 · 70.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
5,266votes
42.7% of the vote · R+12.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 5,243 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
7,062votes
58.4% of the vote · R+18.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 6,803 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
+15.1pts D vs U.S.
Place D+37.7 · U.S. D+22.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Al Gore, 2000 · +5.4 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+49.3pts R vs U.S.
Place R+55.4 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1900 · +34.1 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | D | 53.3%5,695 | 46.7%4,997 | 10,692 |
| 2018 | D | 57.9%4,620 | 42.1%3,356 | 7,976 |
Posting an R+18.2 margin in 2024, this district stands well outside Connecticut's statewide competitive range, signaling a demographic and geographic profile that diverges markedly from the state's overall lean.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 37.7 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 55.4 points in 1896. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 5.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 18.2 points.
A population of 24,288, a 87% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $83,935 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 47 and State House District 45.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Connecticut 51st State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/09051/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.