- Lead
- 1,824
- Total
- 13,799
- vs nation
- R+11.7
Connecticut 45th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 1,139
- Total
- 13,669
- vs nation
- R+12.8
- Lead
- 2,082
- Total
- 12,018
- vs nation
- R+19.4
- Lead
- 773
- Total
- 10,821
- vs nation
- R+11.0
- Lead
- 500
- Total
- 11,654
- vs nation
- R+11.6
- Lead
- 1,320
- Total
- 11,222
- vs nation
- R+9.3
- Lead
- 602
- Total
- 10,326
- vs nation
- R+6.3
- Lead
- 76
- Total
- 9,760
- vs nation
- R+9.3
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+13.2MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 24,6822024 5-year
- Population density
- 202 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 122 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $93,4582024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 83.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+14.4 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+52.3 in 1924MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 52, CT · twin score 96.5
presidential history
Party record book
Connecticut 45th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
57.2%
4,019 votes · D+14.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 47.0%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
74.1%
7,217 votes · R+49.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 74.1%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
6,090votes
44.6% of the vote · R+8.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 5,867 votes
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
7,772votes
72.6% of the vote · R+45.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 7,691 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Al Gore2000
−6.3pts D vs U.S.
Place R+5.8 · U.S. D+0.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · −8.2 pts
Republican
William McKinley1896
+43.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+50.0 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Herbert Hoover, 1932 · +42.7 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | D | 63.3%6,671 | 36.7%3,867 | 10,538 |
| 2018 | D | 66.2%5,926 | 33.8%3,021 | 8,947 |
With a 2024 presidential margin of R+13.2, this district sits well to the right of Connecticut's statewide lean, making it a reliable anchor for Republicans in the lower chamber's map.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 14.4 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 52.3 points in 1924. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 4.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 13.2 points.
A population of 24,682, a 84% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $93,458 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 52 and State House District 47.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Connecticut 45th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/09045/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.