- Lead
- 1,257
- Total
- 10,032
- vs nation
- R+11.1
Arkansas 15th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 1,050
- Total
- 10,606
- vs nation
- R+14.4
- Lead
- 1,604
- Total
- 8,079
- vs nation
- R+21.9
- Lead
- 1,710
- Total
- 6,828
- vs nation
- R+28.9
- Lead
- 1,372
- Total
- 6,594
- vs nation
- R+28.1
- Lead
- 1,321
- Total
- 5,909
- vs nation
- R+19.9
- Lead
- 761
- Total
- 4,735
- vs nation
- R+16.6
- Lead
- 88
- Total
- 4,246
- vs nation
- R+6.4
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+12.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 29,4052024 5-year
- Population density
- 2,245 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 13.1 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $72,1632024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 54.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 34.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+76.3 in 1876MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+41.1 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 11, AR · twin score 97.6
presidential history
Party record book
Arkansas 15th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Samuel J. Tilden1876
88.0%
234 votes · D+76.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1896 · 87.7%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
70.2%
1,119 votes · R+41.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 68.5%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
4,579votes
43.2% of the vote · R+9.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 4,255 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2020
5,629votes
53.1% of the vote · R+9.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 5,512 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
William J. Bryan1896
+82.0pts D vs U.S.
Place D+76.0 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1900 · +65.7 pts
Republican
Mitt Romney2012
+28.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+25.0 · U.S. D+3.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · +28.1 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | R | 32.8%3,631 | 67.2%7,447 | 11,078 |
Arkansas 15th State House District sits in the Mid-South. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 76.3 points in 1876 and a Republican high of 41.1 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 2.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 12.5 points.
A population of 29,405, a 55% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $72,163 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 11 and State House District 19.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Arkansas 15th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/05015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.