- Lead
- 4,638
- Total
- 16,490
- vs nation
- R+26.7
Arkansas 16th State House District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 4,210
- Total
- 14,426
- vs nation
- R+33.6
- Lead
- 4,254
- Total
- 11,185
- vs nation
- R+40.1
- Lead
- 4,139
- Total
- 9,497
- vs nation
- R+47.4
- Lead
- 3,634
- Total
- 9,137
- vs nation
- R+47.0
- Lead
- 3,327
- Total
- 8,134
- vs nation
- R+38.4
- Lead
- 2,301
- Total
- 6,451
- vs nation
- R+36.2
- Lead
- 918
- Total
- 5,386
- vs nation
- R+25.6
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+28.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 29,4462024 5-year
- Population density
- 432 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 68.1 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $128,0662024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 73.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 14.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+69.2 in 1876MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+57.4 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District 14, AR · twin score 95.3
presidential history
Party record book
Arkansas 16th State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Samuel J. Tilden1876
84.6%
236 votes · D+69.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1896 · 82.7%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
78.6%
1,796 votes · R+57.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 77.1%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
5,735votes
34.8% of the vote · R+28.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 4,892 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
10,373votes
62.9% of the vote · R+28.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 9,102 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
William J. Bryan1896
+71.8pts D vs U.S.
Place D+65.7 · U.S. R+6.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1900 · +48.5 pts
Republican
Mitt Romney2012
+47.4pts R vs U.S.
Place R+43.6 · U.S. D+3.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · +47.0 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 31.4%3,669 | 68.6%8,013 | 11,682 |
| 2020 | R | 32.8%3,636 | 67.2%7,458 | 11,094 |
Arkansas 16th State House District sits in the Mid-South. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 69.2 points in 1876 and a Republican high of 57.4 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.1 points toward the Democratic candidate; the 2024 margin was 28.1 points.
A population of 29,446, a 73% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $128,066 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 14 and State House District 18.
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Arkansas 16th State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/05016/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.