Akashic
1892–2024
Akashic
neighborhood

East Midtown-Turtle Bay, NY

Office (updates table and map)

President margin by year

Place winner margin

2004–2024 · D minus R
Full record · 2004 → 2024
2024 presidential vote for East Midtown-Turtle BayThe boundary of East Midtown-Turtle Bay, filled by its 2024 presidential vote (D+52.5).East Midtown-Turtle Bay · D+52.5
2024
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The boundary is the New York City 2020 Neighborhood Tabulation Areas. Results for 2004–2024 are modeled from precinct returns assigned through 2020 Census blocks, not certified neighborhood returns.

President results by year

Modeled candidate-vote estimate on Census boundaries

HarrisDemocratic75.2%14,749TrumpRepublican22.7%4,456OtherAll other candidates2.1%405
D+52.5
Lead
10,293
Total
19,610
vs nation
D+54.0
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
BidenDemocratic79.5%15,352TrumpRepublican19.1%3,680OtherAll other candidates1.5%284
D+60.4
Lead
11,672
Total
19,316
vs nation
D+56.0
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic76.9%13,828TrumpRepublican19.1%3,435OtherAll other candidates3.9%708
D+57.8
Lead
10,393
Total
17,971
vs nation
D+55.7
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic66.9%10,676RomneyRepublican33.1%5,273OtherAll other candidates0.0%0
D+33.9
Lead
5,403
Total
15,949
vs nation
D+30.0
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic72.9%13,924McCainRepublican26.3%5,018OtherAll other candidates0.9%163
D+46.6
Lead
8,906
Total
19,105
vs nation
D+39.3
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
KerryDemocratic67.3%12,812BushRepublican31.5%5,994OtherAll other candidates1.2%220
D+35.8
Lead
6,818
Total
19,026
vs nation
D+38.3
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Modeled estimate from precinct returns disaggregated to 2020 Census blocks and assigned by block internal pointRelative-to-nation = Place margin minus national margin for the same office and year.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
D+52.5MIT Election Lab
Population
45,7652020 Census PL 94-171 blocks
Population density
97,106 / sq mi2020 Census PL 94-171 blocks · NYC Department of City Planning
Land area
0.5 sq miNYC Department of City Planning
Median household income
$80,4832024 ACS 5-year parent-city context
White alone
72.0%2020 Census PL 94-171 P1
Black alone
2.2%2020 Census PL 94-171 P1
Hispanic / Latino (any race)
7.0%2020 Census PL 94-171 P2
Peak Democratic margin
D+60.4 in 2020MIT Election Lab
Most similar
Financial District-Battery Park City, NY · twin score 82.3

presidential history

Party record book

East Midtown-Turtle Bay, NY · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.

2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles

Highest vote share

Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.

Democratic

Joe Biden2020

79.5%

15,352 votes · D+60.4 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · 76.9%

Republican

Mitt Romney2012

33.1%

5,273 votes · D+33.9 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 31.5%

Most votes

Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.

Democratic

Joe Biden2020

15,352votes

79.5% of the vote · D+60.4 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 14,749 votes

Republican

George W. Bush2004

5,994votes

31.5% of the vote · D+35.8 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · 5,273 votes

Best relative to the U.S.

This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.

Democratic

Joe Biden2020

+56.0pts D vs U.S.

Place D+60.4 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · +55.7 pts

Republican

Mitt Romney2012

−30.0pts R vs U.S.

Place D+33.9 · U.S. D+3.9 · modeled estimate

Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · −38.3 pts

Records rank each party’s presidential nominees over the returns for East Midtown-Turtle Bay, NY, 2004–2024. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024); national margins from the same series.Vote share is the nominee’s votes over the candidate-vote total; “relative to the U.S.” subtracts the national margin from this Place’s margin (reversed for the Republican side, so the two are exactly symmetric). Ranking uses full precision and an exact tie goes to the more recent cycle.At least one record above sits on a modeled cycle — precinct returns allocated to this boundary, marked in place and estimated rather than certified.

What the record shows

East Midtown-Turtle Bay voted Democratic by 52.5 points in the modeled 2024 presidential estimate. Its two-party direction moved 16.7 points toward Republicans or Democrats in net terms—specifically Democratic—between 2004 and 2024.

The boundary is the city-sourced Neighborhood Tabulation Area system (2020 / DCP release 26b). Election totals are estimated from precinct returns disaggregated to 2020 Census blocks and assigned by block internal point. Detailed age, income, poverty, education, and language panels use the parent city's 2024 ACS profile as context; population and headline race figures use 2020 Census blocks inside this boundary.

East Midtown-Turtle Bay: Democratic by 52.5 points in the modeled 2024 presidential result.
Boundary system
NYC 2020 NTAs · NYC Department of City Planning
2020 population
45,765 (2020) · 2020 Census PL 94-171 blocks
2024 presidential estimate
Democratic by 52.5 points (2024) · Akashic block-disaggregated presidential model
Political twins — neighborhoods

The neighborhoods whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

Financial District-Battery Park City
New York
82.3twin score
Similarity 0.82
Loop
Illinois
77.4twin score
Similarity 0.77
Upper East Side-Carnegie Hill
New York
77.3twin score
Similarity 0.77

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
East Midtown-Turtle Bay, New York. Akashic. https://akashic.app/neighborhood/new-york/east-midtown-turtle-bay/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
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Frequently asked questions

How did East Midtown-Turtle Bay, New York vote in 2024?
In 2024, East Midtown-Turtle Bay, New York voted Democratic by 52.5 points (D+52.5), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 19,610 votes cast, 14,749 went Democratic and 4,456 went Republican.
How many people live in East Midtown-Turtle Bay, New York?
East Midtown-Turtle Bay, New York has a population of 45,765 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in East Midtown-Turtle Bay, New York?
Median household income in East Midtown-Turtle Bay, New York is $80,483 — below the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of East Midtown-Turtle Bay, New York?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in East Midtown-Turtle Bay, New York from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 6 went Democratic and 0 went Republican.