- Lead
- 7,008
- Total
- 10,620
- vs nation
- R+64.5
- Turnout
- 69.4%
Gem County, ID
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 69.4% of 15,463 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 6,148
- Total
- 9,958
- vs nation
- R+66.2
- Turnout
- 76.5%
- Lead
- 4,751
- Total
- 7,952
- vs nation
- R+61.8
- Turnout
- 65.1%
- Lead
- 3,354
- Total
- 7,490
- vs nation
- R+48.6
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 3,419
- Total
- 7,947
- vs nation
- R+50.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 3,788
- Total
- 7,134
- vs nation
- R+50.6
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 3,030
- Total
- 5,983
- vs nation
- R+51.2
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,394
- Total
- 6,231
- vs nation
- R+30.9
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+66.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 20,6142024 5-year
- Median household income
- $64,6052024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 83.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 9.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+44.5 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+66.0 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Benewah County, ID · twin score 89.7
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 69.4%10,729 participants ÷ 15,463 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +14.1 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -11.6 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 55.3%–58.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 8,140 | 12,503 | 65.1% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 7,216 | 12,688 | 56.9% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 10,067 | 13,156 | 76.5% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 8,948 | 14,332 | 62.4% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 10,729 | 15,463 | 69.4% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
13 precincts · 10,540 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -05 WEST EMMETT05 WEST EMMETT | 145 | 971 | 14 | 1,130 | 12.8% | 85.9% | R+73.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -06 EMMERSON06 EMMERSON | 149 | 949 | 9 | 1,107 | 13.5% | 85.7% | R+72.3 |
| Precinct -08 LETHA08 LETHA | 120 | 939 | 15 | 1,074 | 11.2% | 87.4% | R+76.3 |
| Precinct -09 HANNA09 HANNA | 97 | 862 | 10 | 969 | 10.0% | 89.0% | R+78.9 |
| Precinct -11 BENCH11 BENCH | 127 | 777 | 12 | 916 | 13.9% | 84.8% | R+71.0 |
| Precinct -03 BUTTERVIEW03 BUTTERVIEW | 217 | 668 | 15 | 900 | 24.1% | 74.2% | R+50.1 |
| Precinct -07 LINCOLN07 LINCOLN | 154 | 679 | 12 | 845 | 18.2% | 80.4% | R+62.1 |
| Precinct -04 SOUTH EMMETT04 SOUTH EMMETT | 181 | 577 | 15 | 773 | 23.4% | 74.6% | R+51.2 |
| Precinct -01 CENTRAL01 CENTRAL | 140 | 557 | 7 | 704 | 19.9% | 79.1% | R+59.2 |
| Precinct -10 BRICK10 BRICK | 95 | 577 | 7 | 679 | 14.0% | 85.0% | R+71.0 |
| Precinct -12 SWEET/MOUNTOUR12 SWEET/MOUNTOUR | 111 | 557 | 5 | 673 | 16.5% | 82.8% | R+66.3 |
| Precinct -02 NORTH EMMETT02 NORTH EMMETT | 122 | 452 | 11 | 585 | 20.9% | 77.3% | R+56.4 |
| Precinct -13 OLA13 OLA | 41 | 142 | 2 | 185 | 22.2% | 76.8% | R+54.6 |
Presidential margin, 1916–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1916 | +12.6% |
| 1920 | −25.6% |
| 1924 | −26.7% |
| 1928 | −43.3% |
| 1932 | +34.0% |
| 1936 | +44.5% |
| 1940 | +29.1% |
| 1944 | +15.4% |
| 1948 | +4.1% |
| 1952 | −24.5% |
| 1956 | −17.5% |
| 1960 | −10.3% |
| 1964 | +8.1% |
| 1968 | −28.3% |
| 1972 | −37.2% |
| 1976 | −9.3% |
| 1980 | −37.6% |
| 1984 | −38.1% |
| 1988 | −16.8% |
| 1992 | −14.8% |
| 1996 | −22.4% |
| 2000 | −50.6% |
| 2004 | −53.1% |
| 2008 | −43.0% |
| 2012 | −44.8% |
| 2016 | −59.7% |
| 2020 | −61.7% |
| 2024 | −66.0% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration and the presidential vote track closely here — within 0.8 points.
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 9,588 | 622 | 6,199 | 2,669 | 98 |
| 2020 | 11,209 | 879 | 7,651 | 2,539 | 140 |
| 2022 | 11,477 | 784 | 8,257 | 2,270 | 166 |
| 2024 | 12,211 | 781 | 8,942 | 2,314 | 174 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+249 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +3,426 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $72,734 in average income, against $70,290 for residents who stayed — 3% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+27.3 on average — 39 points more Democratic-leaning than Gem County, ID itself (R+66.0).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Ada County, ID216R+10.3
- Canyon County, ID130R+46.6
- Payette County, ID32R+62.9
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Ada County, ID181
- Canyon County, ID92
- Payette County, ID34
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +14 |
| 2012 | −117 |
| 2013 | −70 |
| 2014 | +99 |
| 2015 | +26 |
| 2016 | +268 |
| 2017 | +361 |
| 2018 | +267 |
| 2019 | +528 |
| 2021 | +647 |
| 2022 | +605 |
| 2023 | +389 |
| 2024 | +160 |
| 2025 | +249 |
Gem County's 2024 presidential margin of R+66 places it among Idaho's most lopsided counties, reflecting a predominantly rural, non-Hispanic white population concentrated around the small city of Emmett in the Payette River valley.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 44.5 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 66.0 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 66.0 points.
A population of 20,614, a 84% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $64,605 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Benewah County and Grant County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Gem County, Idaho. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/16045/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.