HarrisDemocratic61.9%38,905TrumpRepublican36.0%22,621SteinIndependent1.0%646
D+25.9- Lead
- 16,284
- Total
- 62,893
- vs nation
- D+27.4
- Turnout
- 53.5%
Akashiccounty
Maui County, HI
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 53.5% of 118,803 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic66.6%47,305TrumpRepublican31.1%22,126JorgensenLibertarian1.1%772
D+35.4- Lead
- 25,179
- Total
- 71,044
- vs nation
- D+31.0
- Turnout
- 60.9%
ClintonDemocratic64.5%33,480TrumpRepublican25.9%13,446SteinGreen4.6%2,390
D+38.6- Lead
- 20,034
- Total
- 51,945
- vs nation
- D+36.5
- Turnout
- 46.7%
ObamaDemocratic74.1%36,052RomneyRepublican23.8%11,602OtherAll other candidates2.1%999
D+50.3- Lead
- 24,450
- Total
- 48,653
- vs nation
- D+46.4
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic76.7%39,727McCainRepublican21.5%11,154OtherAll other candidates1.8%908
D+55.2- Lead
- 28,573
- Total
- 51,789
- vs nation
- D+47.9
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic60.7%28,803BushRepublican38.3%18,187OtherAll other candidates0.9%440
D+22.4- Lead
- 10,616
- Total
- 47,430
- vs nation
- D+24.8
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic59.8%23,484BushRepublican32.8%12,876NaderGreen6.4%2,499
D+27.0- Lead
- 10,608
- Total
- 39,248
- vs nation
- D+26.5
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic59.1%20,600DoleRepublican26.7%9,323PerotReform9.4%3,264
D+32.3- Lead
- 11,277
- Total
- 34,867
- vs nation
- D+23.8
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+25.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 164,5222024 5-year
- Median household income
- $97,1612024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 29.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 10.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+56.2 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+22.2 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Kauai County, HI · twin score 99.5
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 53.5%63,573 participants ÷ 118,803 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +15.8 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -0.8 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 37.8%–44.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 52,972 | 113,438 | 46.7% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 50,650 | 115,807 | 43.7% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 71,653 | 117,638 | 60.9% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 53,222 | 117,861 | 45.2% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 63,573 | 118,803 | 53.5% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
78 precincts · 62,893 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -13-0213-02 | 3,257 | 1,531 | 159 | 4,947 | 65.8% | 30.9% | D+34.9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -12-0412-04 | 3,128 | 1,576 | 139 | 4,843 | 64.6% | 32.5% | D+32.0 |
| Precinct -10-0310-03 | 2,709 | 1,426 | 60 | 4,195 | 64.6% | 34.0% | D+30.6 |
| Precinct -11-0311-03 | 2,380 | 1,556 | 85 | 4,021 | 59.2% | 38.7% | D+20.5 |
| Precinct -12-0312-03 | 2,498 | 1,302 | 91 | 3,891 | 64.2% | 33.5% | D+30.7 |
| Precinct -14-0414-04 | 2,222 | 1,596 | 62 | 3,880 | 57.3% | 41.1% | D+16.1 |
| Precinct -11-0111-01 | 2,000 | 1,102 | 64 | 3,166 | 63.2% | 34.8% | D+28.4 |
| Precinct -11-0211-02 | 1,582 | 883 | 51 | 2,516 | 62.9% | 35.1% | D+27.8 |
| Precinct -12-0112-01 | 1,517 | 931 | 53 | 2,501 | 60.7% | 37.2% | D+23.4 |
| Precinct -09-0209-02 | 1,402 | 804 | 45 | 2,251 | 62.3% | 35.7% | D+26.6 |
| Precinct -10-0510-05 | 1,245 | 835 | 39 | 2,119 | 58.8% | 39.4% | D+19.3 |
| Precinct -09-0109-01 | 1,108 | 787 | 21 | 1,916 | 57.8% | 41.1% | D+16.8 |
| Precinct -12-0212-02 | 1,240 | 621 | 54 | 1,915 | 64.8% | 32.4% | D+32.3 |
| Precinct -11-0411-04 | 1,241 | 597 | 36 | 1,874 | 66.2% | 31.9% | D+34.4 |
| Precinct -14-0514-05 | 890 | 690 | 38 | 1,618 | 55.0% | 42.6% | D+12.4 |
| Precinct -09-0409-04 | 912 | 602 | 28 | 1,542 | 59.1% | 39.0% | D+20.1 |
| Precinct -10-0710-07 | 955 | 504 | 25 | 1,484 | 64.4% | 34.0% | D+30.4 |
| Precinct -09-0309-03 | 882 | 571 | 23 | 1,476 | 59.8% | 38.7% | D+21.1 |
| Precinct -13-0113-01 | 887 | 431 | 36 | 1,354 | 65.5% | 31.8% | D+33.7 |
| Precinct -10-0410-04 | 834 | 474 | 27 | 1,335 | 62.5% | 35.5% | D+27.0 |
| Precinct -13-0613-06 | 673 | 485 | 24 | 1,182 | 56.9% | 41.0% | D+15.9 |
| Precinct -14-0114-01 | 656 | 370 | 21 | 1,047 | 62.7% | 35.3% | D+27.3 |
| Precinct -13-0313-03 | 594 | 274 | 37 | 905 | 65.6% | 30.3% | D+35.4 |
| Precinct -13-0413-04 | 574 | 304 | 16 | 894 | 64.2% | 34.0% | D+30.2 |
| Precinct -10-0110-01 | 449 | 391 | 22 | 862 | 52.1% | 45.4% | D+6.7 |
| Precinct -10-0610-06 | 531 | 315 | 12 | 858 | 61.9% | 36.7% | D+25.2 |
| Precinct -09-0509-05 | 467 | 347 | 21 | 835 | 55.9% | 41.6% | D+14.4 |
| Precinct -14-0214-02 | 415 | 325 | 12 | 752 | 55.2% | 43.2% | D+12.0 |
| Precinct -10-0210-02 | 492 | 241 | 18 | 751 | 65.5% | 32.1% | D+33.4 |
| Precinct -13-0813-08 | 397 | 257 | 23 | 677 | 58.6% | 38.0% | D+20.7 |
| Precinct -14-0314-03 | 345 | 231 | 8 | 584 | 59.1% | 39.6% | D+19.5 |
| Precinct -13-0513-05 | 212 | 128 | 11 | 351 | 60.4% | 36.5% | D+23.9 |
| Precinct -13-0713-07 | 131 | 108 | 3 | 242 | 54.1% | 44.6% | D+9.5 |
| Precinct -12-0512-05 | 65 | 24 | 3 | 92 | 70.7% | 26.1% | D+44.6 |
| Precinct -13-0913-09 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 88.2% | 11.8% | D+76.5 |
| Baldwin High Sch Voting District15_150090803 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Honolua United Meth Ch Voting District15_150091006 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Iao Sch Voting District15_150090901 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Kahului Hongwanji Mission Voting District15_150090906 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Kalama Inter Sch Voting District15_150091201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Kamailii Elem Sch Voting District15_150091102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Kaulanpueo Church Voting District15_150091304 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Kenolio Rec Complex Voting District15_150091001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Kihei Elem Sch Voting District15_150091104 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lahaina Civic Ctr Voting District15_150091005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lihikai Elem Sch Voting District15_150090903 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Maui Economic Opportunity Ctr Voting District15_150090807 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Maui High Sch Voting District15_150090904 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Maunaloa Elem Sch Voting District15_150091310 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Paukukalo Hwn Homes Comm Ctr Voting District15_150090804 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Princess Nahienaena Elem Sch Voting District15_150091004 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Trinity Episcopal Church by the Sea Voting District15_150091101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Ulapalakua Ranch Voting District15_150091207 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Velma McWayne Santos Comm Ctr Voting District15_150090802 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 080115_150090801 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 090215_150090902 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 090515_150090905 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 090715_150090907 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 100215_150091002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 100315_150091003 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 110315_150091103 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 120215_150091202 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 120315_150091203 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 120415_150091204 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 120515_150091205 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 120615_150091206 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 130115_150091301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 130215_150091302 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 130315_150091303 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 130515_150091305 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 130615_150091306 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 130715_150091307 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 130815_150091308 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 130915_150091309 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting District 131115_150091311 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Voting Districts not defined15_15009ZZZZZZ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Waikapu Comm Ctr Voting District15_150090806 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Wailuku Elem Sch Voting District15_150090805 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1960–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1960 | −9.6% |
| 1964 | +56.2% |
| 1968 | +23.1% |
| 1972 | −22.2% |
| 1976 | +7.1% |
| 1980 | +9.0% |
| 1984 | −6.2% |
| 1988 | +14.9% |
| 1992 | +21.1% |
| 1996 | +32.3% |
| 2000 | +27.0% |
| 2004 | +22.4% |
| 2008 | +55.2% |
| 2012 | +50.3% |
| 2016 | +38.6% |
| 2020 | +35.4% |
| 2024 | +25.9% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 22 Senate · 3 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 93,912 |
| 2018 | 96,721 |
| 2020 | 107,930 |
| 2022 | 113,749 |
| 2024 | 112,558 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−2,226 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −8,279 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $86,372 in average income, against $85,538 for residents who stayed — 1% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+21.4 on average — 4.5 points more Republican-leaning than Maui County, HI itself (D+25.9).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Los Angeles County, CA131D+32.9
- San Diego County, CA93D+16.8
- Clark County, NV84D+2.6
- Maricopa County, AZ70R+3.5
- King County, WA66D+51.3
- Orange County, CA51D+2.7
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Clark County, NV214
- Los Angeles County, CA106
- King County, WA91
- San Diego County, CA79
- Maricopa County, AZ67
- Orange County, CA55
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +226 |
| 2012 | +188 |
| 2013 | +708 |
| 2014 | +739 |
| 2015 | −550 |
| 2016 | −455 |
| 2017 | −499 |
| 2018 | −265 |
| 2019 | −517 |
| 2021 | −656 |
| 2022 | −1,313 |
| 2023 | −1,007 |
| 2024 | −2,652 |
| 2025 | −2,226 |
Maui's electorate blends Native Hawaiian residents, transplants drawn by tourism and real estate, and a large service-industry workforce — a mix that has produced double-digit Democratic presidential margins in every recent cycle.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 56.2 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 22.2 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 9.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 25.9 points.
A population of 164,522, a 29% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $97,161 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Kauai County and Hawaii County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Kauai County
Hawaii
99.5twin score
elasticity2008–2012 trajectory% Asian
Hawaii County
Hawaii
99.1twin score
2008–2012 trajectoryelasticity% Asian≠ median income
Honolulu County
Hawaii
96.4twin score
elasticity% Asian2012–2016 trajectory≠ population scale
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Maui County, Hawaii. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/15009/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did Maui County, Hawaii vote in 2024?
In 2024, Maui County, Hawaii voted Democratic by 25.9 points (D+25.9), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 62,893 votes cast, 38,905 went Democratic and 22,621 went Republican.
When did Maui County, Hawaii last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Maui County, Hawaii voted Republican was 1984.
How many people live in Maui County, Hawaii?
Maui County, Hawaii has a population of 164,522 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Maui County, Hawaii?
Median household income in Maui County, Hawaii is $97,161 — above the national median of $80,734. The Hawaii state median is $100,389.
What is the political history of Maui County, Hawaii?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Maui County, Hawaii from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 14 went Democratic and 3 went Republican.