Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the city’s overall result across 1992–2024, on current city boundaries.
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
HarrisDemocratic49.2%550TrumpRepublican47.7%533OtherAll other candidates3.0%34
D+1.5
Lead
17
Total
1,117
vs nation
D+3.0
BidenDemocratic53.0%641TrumpRepublican44.6%540OtherAll other candidates2.4%29
D+8.3
Lead
101
Total
1,210
vs nation
D+3.9
ClintonDemocratic48.3%480TrumpRepublican42.6%423OtherAll other candidates9.2%91
D+5.7
Lead
57
Total
994
vs nation
D+3.6
ObamaDemocratic59.7%614RomneyRepublican35.9%369OtherAll other candidates4.4%45
D+23.8
Lead
245
Total
1,028
vs nation
D+20.0
ObamaDemocratic61.2%712McCainRepublican37.8%440OtherAll other candidates0.9%11
D+23.4
Lead
272
Total
1,163
vs nation
D+16.1
KerryDemocratic54.8%629BushRepublican43.2%495OtherAll other candidates2.0%23
D+11.7
Lead
134
Total
1,147
vs nation
D+14.1
ClintonDemocratic48.3%429DoleRepublican28.0%249OtherAll other candidates23.6%210
D+20.3
Lead
180
Total
888
vs nation
D+11.7
ClintonDemocratic41.3%427BushRepublican23.1%239OtherAll other candidates35.5%367
D+18.2
Lead
60
Total
1,033
vs nation
D+12.6
Key facts
2024 presidential margin
D+1.5MIT Election Lab
Population
3,4352024 5-year
Population density
636 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area
5.4 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income
$56,6252024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
71.2%2024 5-year
Black
5.2%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
14.2%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+23.8 in 2012MIT Election Lab
Participation
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
40.2%1,130 participants ÷ 2,813 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+19.9 ptsVolatile
Drop-off vs state
-6.2 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
20.3%–26.6%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%
40.0%
33.5%
20042008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
1,130
2,813 ± 391
40.2%
Audited
E/D
2022Mid
862
2,575 ± 354
33.5%
Audited
E/D
1,234
2,314 ± 358
53.3%
Audited
E/D
2018Mid
927
2,316 ± 384
40.0%
Audited
E/D
1,040
2,195 ± 280
47.4%
Audited
E/D
1,028
2,301
44.7%
Derived
—
1,163
2,516
46.2%
Derived
—
1,147
2,731 extrapolated
42.0%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
presidential history
Party record book
Lucerne, CA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1992–2024 · 8 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
61.2%
712 votes · D+23.4
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · 59.7%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
47.7%
533 votes · D+1.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 44.6%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
712votes
61.2% of the vote · D+23.4
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 641 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2020
540votes
44.6% of the vote · D+8.3
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 533 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
+20.0pts D vs U.S.
Place D+23.8 · U.S. D+3.9
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · +16.1 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2024
−3.0pts R vs U.S.
Place D+1.5 · U.S. R+1.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · −3.6 pts
U.S. House elections · 1 House
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Lucerne · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Lake County, California, the county containing Lucerne — Lucerne’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Lucerne, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Lucerne sits in the Pacific Coast. In 2024 it voted Democratic.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 23.8 points in 2012. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 6.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 1.5 points.
A population of 3,435, a 71% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $56,625 describe the city.
In 2024, Lucerne, California voted Democratic by 1.5 points (D+1.5), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 1,117 votes cast, 550 went Democratic and 533 went Republican.
How many people live in Lucerne, California?
Lucerne, California has a population of 3,435 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Lucerne, California?
Median household income in Lucerne, California is $56,625 — below the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Lucerne, California?
Akashic tracks 8 presidential elections in Lucerne, California from 1992 to 2024. Of those, 8 went Democratic and 0 went Republican.
