Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the city’s overall result across 1996–2024, on current city boundaries.
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
HarrisDemocratic37.5%502TrumpRepublican60.4%807OtherAll other candidates2.1%28
R+22.8
Lead
305
Total
1,337
vs nation
R+21.3
BidenDemocratic42.5%547TrumpRepublican55.6%715OtherAll other candidates1.9%25
R+13.1
Lead
168
Total
1,287
vs nation
R+17.5
ClintonDemocratic45.6%480TrumpRepublican48.8%513OtherAll other candidates5.6%59
R+3.1
Lead
33
Total
1,052
vs nation
R+5.2
ObamaDemocratic40.4%362RomneyRepublican57.5%515OtherAll other candidates2.1%19
R+17.1
Lead
153
Total
896
vs nation
R+20.9
ObamaDemocratic43.3%387McCainRepublican54.7%489OtherAll other candidates2.0%18
R+11.4
Lead
102
Total
894
vs nation
R+18.7
KerryDemocratic34.5%302BushRepublican63.7%557OtherAll other candidates1.8%16
R+29.1
Lead
255
Total
875
vs nation
R+26.7
ClintonDemocratic43.0%131DoleRepublican42.0%128OtherAll other candidates15.1%46
D+1.0
Lead
3
Total
305
vs nation
R+7.5
Key facts
2024 presidential margin
R+22.8MIT Election Lab
Population
3,0932024 5-year
Population density
1,718 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area
1.8 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income
$86,9422024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
14.2%2024 5-year
Black
0.0%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
79.6%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+1.0 in 1996MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+29.1 in 2004MIT Election Lab
Participation
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2008–20247 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
74.9%1,379 participants ÷ 1,842 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+19.2 ptsVolatile
Drop-off vs state
-6.9 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
55.5%–55.7%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%100%
55.2%
53.7%
2008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
1,379
1,842 ± 359
74.9%
Audited
E/D
2022Mid
908
1,692 ± 296
53.7%
Audited
E/D
1,310
1,799 ± 354
72.8%
Audited
E/D
2018Mid
930
1,686 ± 237
55.2%
Audited
E/D
1,102
1,473 ± 223
74.8%
Audited
E/D
896
1,687
53.1%
Derived
—
894
1,222
73.2%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
presidential history
Party record book
Arbuckle, CA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1996–2024 · 7 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Hillary Clinton2016
45.6%
480 votes · R+3.1
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 43.3%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
63.7%
557 votes · R+29.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 60.4%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
547votes
42.5% of the vote · R+13.1
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 502 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
807votes
60.4% of the vote · R+22.8
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 715 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Hillary Clinton2016
−5.2pts D vs U.S.
Place R+3.1 · U.S. D+2.1
Runner-up · Bill Clinton, 1996 · −7.5 pts
Republican
George W. Bush2004
+26.7pts R vs U.S.
Place R+29.1 · U.S. R+2.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · +21.3 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Arbuckle · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Colusa County, California, the county containing Arbuckle — Arbuckle’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Arbuckle, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Arbuckle sits in Colusa County, one of California's most Republican-leaning rural counties, where irrigated row crops and orchards anchor the local economy and a substantial Latino farmworker population increasingly factors into demographic trends.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 1.0 points in 1996 and a Republican high of 29.1 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 9.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 22.8 points.
A population of 3,093, a 14% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $86,942 describe the city.
In 2024, Arbuckle, California voted Republican by 22.8 points (R+22.8), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 1,337 votes cast, 502 went Democratic and 807 went Republican.
When did Arbuckle, California last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Arbuckle, California voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Arbuckle, California?
Arbuckle, California has a population of 3,093 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Arbuckle, California?
Median household income in Arbuckle, California is $86,942 — above the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Arbuckle, California?
Akashic tracks 7 presidential elections in Arbuckle, California from 1996 to 2024. Of those, 1 went Democratic and 6 went Republican.
