- Lead
- 7,279
- Total
- 94,360
- vs nation
- D+9.2
Wisconsin 15th State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 10,661
- Total
- 90,854
- vs nation
- D+7.3
- Lead
- 8,768
- Total
- 83,524
- vs nation
- D+8.4
- Lead
- 20,337
- Total
- 88,452
- vs nation
- D+19.1
- Lead
- 25,494
- Total
- 86,886
- vs nation
- D+22.1
- Lead
- 14,458
- Total
- 87,361
- vs nation
- D+19.0
- Lead
- 13,840
- Total
- 76,232
- vs nation
- D+17.6
- Lead
- 13,648
- Total
- 65,288
- vs nation
- D+12.4
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+7.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 178,5852024 5-year
- Population density
- 241 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 741 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $74,7772024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 79.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 4.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 9.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+29.3 in 2008MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+68.3 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 14, WI · twin score 88.7
presidential history
Party record book
Wisconsin 15th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
63.9%
55,478 votes · D+29.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · 60.9%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
82.2%
16,844 votes · R+68.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Theodore Roosevelt, 1904 · 69.4%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
55,478votes
63.9% of the vote · D+29.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · 53,837 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
42,776votes
45.3% of the vote · D+7.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 39,267 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
+22.1pts D vs U.S.
Place D+29.3 · U.S. D+7.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · +19.1 pts
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
+42.1pts R vs U.S.
Place R+68.3 · U.S. R+26.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1900 · +31.9 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Anchored in rural west-central Wisconsin, the district backed the 2024 Republican presidential nominee by nearly 20 points, a margin that has remained consistent across recent election cycles and reflects the region's deep agricultural roots.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 29.3 points in 2008 and a Republican high of 68.3 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 4.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 7.7 points.
A population of 178,585, a 79% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $74,777 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 14 and State Senate District 32.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Wisconsin 15th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/55015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.