- Lead
- 35,178
- Total
- 74,950
- vs nation
- D+48.4
Virginia 21st State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 40,472
- Total
- 79,396
- vs nation
- D+46.5
- Lead
- 35,533
- Total
- 73,923
- vs nation
- D+46.0
- Lead
- 39,518
- Total
- 77,261
- vs nation
- D+47.3
- Lead
- 38,316
- Total
- 78,449
- vs nation
- D+41.6
- Lead
- 19,217
- Total
- 61,727
- vs nation
- D+33.6
- Lead
- 17,892
- Total
- 54,248
- vs nation
- D+32.5
- Lead
- 19,894
- Total
- 52,903
- vs nation
- D+29.1
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+46.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 212,4292024 5-year
- Population density
- 4,335 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 49 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $63,8282024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 38.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 42.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 9.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+81.5 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+12.0 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 2, GA · twin score 97.6
presidential history
Party record book
Virginia 21st State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
74.9%
57,886 votes · D+51.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 74.4%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
34.0%
20,977 votes · D+31.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 25.8%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
59,058votes
74.4% of the vote · D+51.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 58,025 votes
Republican
George W. Bush2004
20,977votes
34.0% of the vote · D+31.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · 19,709 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+48.4pts D vs U.S.
Place D+46.9 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · +47.3 pts
Republican
George W. Bush2004
−33.6pts R vs U.S.
Place D+31.1 · U.S. R+2.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · −41.6 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Virginia 21st State Senate District sits in the Mid-Atlantic and Appalachia. In 2024 it voted Democratic.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 81.5 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 12.0 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 4.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 46.9 points.
A population of 212,429, a 38% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $63,828 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 2 and State Senate District 28.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Virginia 21st State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/51021/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.