- Lead
- 19,786
- Total
- 136,688
- vs nation
- R+13.0
Pennsylvania 31st State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 17,707
- Total
- 131,248
- vs nation
- R+17.9
- Lead
- 20,699
- Total
- 114,968
- vs nation
- R+20.1
- Lead
- 12,591
- Total
- 105,736
- vs nation
- R+15.8
- Lead
- 5,316
- Total
- 109,016
- vs nation
- R+12.1
- Lead
- 19,861
- Total
- 98,641
- vs nation
- R+17.7
- Lead
- 13,737
- Total
- 81,204
- vs nation
- R+17.4
- Lead
- 4,493
- Total
- 73,038
- vs nation
- R+14.7
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+14.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 260,6232024 5-year
- Population density
- 780 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 334 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $82,1882024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 74.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 7.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 11.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+35.3 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+52.2 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 28, PA · twin score 87.8
presidential history
Party record book
Pennsylvania 31st State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
64.6%
33,939 votes · D+29.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Samuel J. Tilden, 1876 · 63.9%
Republican
Herbert Hoover1928
75.5%
21,680 votes · R+52.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 65.4%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
57,718votes
42.2% of the vote · R+14.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 55,749 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
77,504votes
56.7% of the vote · R+14.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 73,456 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Grover Cleveland1892
+22.9pts D vs U.S.
Place D+24.5 · U.S. D+1.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · James M. Cox, 1920 · +21.0 pts
Republican
Herbert Hoover1928
+34.7pts R vs U.S.
Place R+52.2 · U.S. R+17.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · +20.1 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
With a 14.5-point Republican presidential margin in 2024, this district ranks among the most heavily one-sided state senate seats in Pennsylvania, reflecting the rural and small-town demographics that define its electorate.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 35.3 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 52.2 points in 1928. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 14.5 points.
A population of 260,623, a 75% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $82,188 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 28 and State Senate District 48.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Pennsylvania 31st State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/42031/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.