- Lead
- 5,256
- Total
- 22,195
- vs nation
- D+25.2
New Mexico 15th State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 5,835
- Total
- 23,357
- vs nation
- D+20.5
- Lead
- 3,123
- Total
- 21,037
- vs nation
- D+12.8
- Lead
- 2,762
- Total
- 20,684
- vs nation
- D+9.5
- Lead
- 3,905
- Total
- 21,698
- vs nation
- D+10.7
- Lead
- 197
- Total
- 19,549
- vs nation
- D+3.5
- Lead
- 142
- Total
- 15,637
- vs nation
- R+1.4
- Lead
- 323
- Total
- 13,980
- vs nation
- R+6.2
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+23.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 49,6452024 5-year
- Population density
- 4,433 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 11.2 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $55,3032024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 41.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 40.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+30.3 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+33.1 in 1956MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 20, NM · twin score 92.5
presidential history
Party record book
New Mexico 15th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1912–2024 · 29 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
64.6%
1,131 votes · D+30.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 61.1%
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
66.6%
3,348 votes · R+33.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 61.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
14,266votes
61.1% of the vote · D+25.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 13,421 votes
Republican
George W. Bush2004
9,504votes
48.6% of the vote · D+1.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · 8,702 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+25.2pts D vs U.S.
Place D+23.7 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +20.5 pts
Republican
William H. Taft1912
+19.2pts R vs U.S.
Place D+0.3 · U.S. D+19.5 · a third-party candidate carried the Place · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1956 · +17.7 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 61.0%13,511 | 39.0%8,639 | 22,150 |
New Mexico 15th State Senate District sits in the desert Southwest. In 2024 it voted Democratic.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 30.3 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 33.1 points in 1956. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 23.7 points.
A population of 49,645, a 41% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $55,303 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 20 and State Senate District 10.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
New Mexico 15th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/35015/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.