- Lead
- 17,268
- Total
- 44,212
- vs nation
- D+40.5
Minnesota 51st State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 19,080
- Total
- 47,630
- vs nation
- D+35.6
- Lead
- 13,083
- Total
- 43,002
- vs nation
- D+28.3
- Lead
- 9,545
- Total
- 43,509
- vs nation
- D+18.1
- Lead
- 10,057
- Total
- 42,137
- vs nation
- D+16.6
- Lead
- 6,015
- Total
- 41,251
- vs nation
- D+17.0
- Lead
- 3,381
- Total
- 36,604
- vs nation
- D+8.7
- Lead
- 5,625
- Total
- 33,338
- vs nation
- D+8.4
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+39.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 85,5332024 5-year
- Population density
- 2,804 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 30.5 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $85,1312024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 58.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 11.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 16.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+40.1 in 2020MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+73.9 in 1904MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 43, MN · twin score 95.2
presidential history
Party record book
Minnesota 51st State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
68.7%
32,733 votes · D+40.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 68.2%
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
81.4%
2,118 votes · R+73.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · James A. Garfield, 1880 · 78.0%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
32,733votes
68.7% of the vote · D+40.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 30,139 votes
Republican
George W. Bush2004
17,368votes
42.1% of the vote · D+14.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 17,293 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+40.5pts D vs U.S.
Place D+39.1 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +35.6 pts
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
+54.2pts R vs U.S.
Place R+73.9 · U.S. R+19.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Calvin Coolidge, 1924 · +30.6 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 67.2%31,102 | 32.8%15,215 | 46,317 |
Minnesota 51st State Senate District sits in the Upper Midwest. In 2024 it voted Democratic.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 40.1 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 73.9 points in 1904. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 39.1 points.
A population of 85,533, a 59% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $85,131 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 43 and State Senate District 46.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Minnesota 51st State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/27051/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.