- Lead
- 12,681
- Total
- 32,509
- vs nation
- D+40.5
Minnesota 38th State Senate District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 15,235
- Total
- 36,691
- vs nation
- D+37.1
- Lead
- 12,110
- Total
- 33,315
- vs nation
- D+34.3
- Lead
- 9,551
- Total
- 33,658
- vs nation
- D+24.5
- Lead
- 9,846
- Total
- 32,906
- vs nation
- D+22.6
- Lead
- 6,762
- Total
- 31,909
- vs nation
- D+23.6
- Lead
- 4,333
- Total
- 28,134
- vs nation
- D+14.9
- Lead
- 5,761
- Total
- 25,483
- vs nation
- D+14.1
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+39.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 85,7432024 5-year
- Population density
- 4,083 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 21 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $74,7712024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 33.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 31.5%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 11.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+41.5 in 2020MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+66.3 in 1904MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State Senate District 66, MN · twin score 89.9
presidential history
Party record book
Minnesota 38th State Senate District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
69.6%
25,519 votes · D+41.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 68.3%
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
78.0%
1,561 votes · R+66.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · James A. Garfield, 1880 · 66.6%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
25,519votes
69.6% of the vote · D+41.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 22,197 votes
Republican
George W. Bush2004
12,426votes
38.9% of the vote · D+21.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 12,369 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+40.5pts D vs U.S.
Place D+39.0 · U.S. R+1.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +37.1 pts
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
+46.6pts R vs U.S.
Place R+66.3 · U.S. R+19.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Calvin Coolidge, 1924 · +30.6 pts
Current officeholders
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
With a 2024 presidential margin of D+39, this district ranks among the most heavily Democratic state senate seats in Minnesota, likely anchored by dense urban precincts where voter preferences skew sharply in one direction.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 41.5 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 66.3 points in 1904. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 2.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 39.0 points.
A population of 85,743, a 34% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $74,771 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State Senate District 66 and State Senate District 65.
The state-senate districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Minnesota 38th State Senate District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-upper/27038/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.